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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee ended largely unchanged as investors remained cautious ahead of slew of economic data from US to gauge economic health of the country and get fresh cues on rate trajectory. While, optimistic domestic market sentiments and soft dollar lent support to rupee

• Rupee is likely to depreciate today amid expectation of rise in US dollar and surge in treasury yields. Yields are moving north as data showed price pressure elevated more than expected in the first quarter despite of growth seen weaker than anticipated. Core PCE rose by 3.7% in Q1 CY24 above expectations for a 3.4% increase. Investors fear that rise in inflation print for first quarter, signals today’s PCE number will be higher. Additionally, surge in crude oil prices will hurt rupee. USDINR May likely to find support near 83.30 level (50-Day EMA) and rise towards 83.50 level.

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro rallied by 0.29% yesterday amid weakness in dollar and upbeat economic data from euro zone. German May GfK consumer confidence index rose more than expected to a 2-year high. Additionally, hawkish comments from ECB governing council members supported single currency. For today, EURUSD is likely to face the resistance near 1.0740 level and slip towards immediate support level of 1.0700 levels (10-Day EMA) amid subdued global market sentiments. If pair breaks 1.0700 level then it may weaken further towards 1.0670 level. EURINR May is likely to slip towards 89.15 levels as long as it trades below 89.60 levels.

• Pound is expected to face stiff resistance near 1.2540 level and slip back towards 1.2470 level (10-Day EMA) amid expectation of rise in dollar ahead of PCE price index data from US. Moreover, investors are assessing the BoE’s monetary policy path after recent mixed signals from policymakers. GBPINR May is likely to move south towards 104.10 level as long as it stays below 104.70 leve

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