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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee appreciated on Friday amid rise in risk appetite in the domestic market and as India's GDP growth in the Q3FY24 far exceeded expectations

• Rupee is likely to appreciate today amid weakness in dollar and US treasury yields. Dollar is moving south as weaker than expected economic data from US boosted market expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June. Moreover, rise in risk appetite in the domestic market and FII inflows would aid rupee to gain strength. Meanwhile, sharp gains may be prevented due to surge in crude oil prices following OPEC+ members decision to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 mbpd into the second quarter. USDINR March likely to slip towards 82.80 levels as long as it sustains below 83.00 levels

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro edged higher by 0.30% on Friday amid weakness in dollar and as Eurozone CPI rose more than expected. Moreover, hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Holzmann supported single currency. For today, EURUSD is likely to hold the support near 1.0800 level and rise towards 1.0870 level amid soft dollar and optimistic global market sentiments. Further, sticky inflation data added to the case for the ECB to hold interest rates at record highs a bit longer. EURINR March may rise towards 90.30 level as long as it trades above 89.60 levels

• Pound is expected to rise further towards 1.2700 level amid soft dollar and hawkish comments from BOE officials. BOE chief economist Huw Pill said he thought the time for a first interest rate cut by the central bank remained "some way off.“ GBPINR March is likely to move north towards 105.20 level as long as it stays above 104.70 levels

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