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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee traded in a tight range yesterday as likely intervention by central bank offset local demand for dollar from importers. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious ahead of US ISM Services PMI and Jolts job opening data to get clarity on future path of interest rates

• Rupee is likely to appreciate today amid expectation of correction in dollar and decline in US treasury yields. Yields are extending their fall as report showed US job opening hit a more than 2 ½ year low in October, signaling cooling labor market. Slowing labor market and ebbing price pressure has raised optimism that US Fed is done with raising interest rates and may start cutting rates in first half of 2024. Additionally, rupee may gain strength on softening of crude oil prices and rise in risk appetite in the domestic markets. USDINR may slip to 83.30 level as long as its stays below 83.50 levels

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro slipped by 0.37% yesterday on the back of steady dollar and dovish comments from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel. Meanwhile, sharp downside was cushioned on better than expected economic data. For today, EURUSD is likely to rise back towards 1.0850 levels as long as it stays above 1.0750 levels on expectation of correction in dollar and forecast of upbeat economic data from euro zone. Meanwhile, sharp upside may be capped on dovish statements from ECB officials. EURINR may rally towards 90.60 as long as it trades above 90.00 levels

• Pound is likely to move back towards 1.2650 level on expectation of improved economic data from Britain. Meanwhile, investors will remain cautious ahead of BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech to get cues on interest rate outlook. GBPINR is likely to move higher towards 105.50 level as long a it stays above 104.90 levels

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