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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee appreciated marginally yesterday amid soft crude oil prices and likely dollar sales from central bank. Meanwhile, sharp gains in rupee was limited amid strong dollar and risk aversion in the global markets

• Rupee is expected to appreciate today amid soft dollar and retreat in US treasury yields from multi year highs. Dollar slipped on dovish statements from US Fed Chair Powell. He said US economy’s strength and tight labor market conditions could warrant further rate increases, but rising market interest rates could make action by central bank less necessary. His statements left intact expectations that Fed will leave its interest rate unchanged in upcoming meeting. USDINR is likely to slip back towards 83.00 level as long as it sustains below 83.30 levels

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro edged higher yesterday amid weak dollar following dovish statements from the Fed Chair Powell. He said Fed was proceeding carefully while making decision about the extent of additional policy tightening. For today, EURUSD is likely to rise further towards 1.0620 levels as long as it remains above 1.0530 levels amid soft dollar. However, sharp upside may be capped on pessimistic global market sentiments and weak economic data from Euro zone. EURINR may move north towards 88.25 level as long as it stays above 87.80 levels

• Pound is expected to rise towards 1.2200 level amid weakness in dollar. Further, steady inflation in UK raised possibility of another rise in interest rates. GBPINR is likely to rise towards 101.30 level as long as it trades above 100.70 level.

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