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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee depreciated yesterday amid demand for dollar from local corporates and large foreign banks . Rupee in the early trading session had gained some strength due to weakness in dollar and softening of crude oil prices but it was short lived

• Rupee is likely to appreciate today amid soft dollar and decline in crude oil prices . Dollar is showing weakness on anticipation that US Fed is done with hiking interest rate and is getting ready to pivot to rate cuts in 2024 . Additionally, US Manufacturing PMI data is likely to show that activity in sector contracted, which would further weigh on dollar . Meanwhile, sharp gains may be prevented on pessimistic domestic market sentiments and FII outflows . USDINR may slip to 83 .25 level as long as its stays below 83 .45 levels

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro moved up by 0 .13 % yesterday amid weak dollar and better than expected economic data from euro zone . Data signaled that downturn in euro zone economy may be starting to ease . For today, EURUSD is likely to rise back towards 1 .0950 level as long as it stays above 1 .0870 levels amid soft dollar and forecast of upbeat economic data from euro zone . Meanwhile, investors will remain cautious ahead of speeches from ECB officials to get more clarity on interest rate outlook . EURINR may rally back towards 91 .20 as long as it trades above 90 .70 levels

• Pound is likely to move further north towards 1 .2600 level amid soft dollar and surge in UK bond yields . Further, sterling may go higher as data showed British companies returned to growth in November, fueling hopes Britain will avoid a recession . GBPINR is likely to move higher towards 104 .70 level as long a it stays above 104 .10

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