Rupee Highlights As On 18 May 2026 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
* Rupee weakened to an all-time low past 96/USD, as oil prices neared $110 per barrel, intensifying economic challenges for the world's third-biggest crude importer, with strains emerging in key indicators.
* The currency has declined over 6% year-to-date and is Asia's worst-performing unit, battered by persistent capital outflows and worries over the balance of payments strain as the Iran war keeps energy prices on the boil.
* India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $28.38 billion in April, as the Middle East conflict hindered shipments and disrupted energy imports, making them costlier.
* India's retail inflation saw a slight increase to 3.48 percent in April, this rise was primarily due to higher food prices.
* India's wholesale inflation reached an 8.3% peak in April, a 42-month high.
* India's unemployment rate climbed to 5.2% in April, a six-month peak. Rural joblessness saw an increase, while urban unemployment eased to a year-low.
* India's foreign exchange reserves rose to $696.99 billion as of May 8, compared with $690.69 billion a week earlier, the Reserve Bank of India said.
* Morgan Stanley estimates a promising economic growth rate of 6.7% for India in FY27, driven by vibrant domestic consumption, extensive infrastructure investments by the government, and a surge in services exports.
* Moody’s Ratings has cut India’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 0.8 percentage points to 6 per cent, citing weak private consumption, slower capital formation and industrial activity, along with higher energy costs.
* Goldman Sachs expect India's consumer inflation to average around 4% in May and forecast two 25-basis-point rate hikes in October and December.
* Technically USDINR is getting support at 95.60 and below same could see a test of 95.00 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 96.60, a move above could see prices testing 97.24.
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