Rupee eyes speculative flows after defeat at key resistance level
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The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Tuesday, taking direction from speculative and other flows after failing to pierce past an important handle in previous sessions.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open mostly flat from its previous close of 83.13. The currency had knocked at the psychologically important level of 83 on Friday and Monday, but could not break past it.
It's hardly surprising that "taking out 83 is proving difficult," which in a way means "speculators will be at least less inclined" to add more rupee long positions, a forex trader at a bank said.
"Having said that, you have the election results looming. That makes what speculators and corporates over the next few days a bit unpredictable."
The result of India's national elections is due on June 4. Before that, the exit polls will be released on June 1.
Opinion polls releases before the election began had predicted a comfortable victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, a positive for the rupee.
However, reports of lower turnout and voter fatigue have since fanned doubts about the margin of victory for the BJP, which has prompted foreign investors to take out $2.8 billion from Indian equities this month so far.
Meanwhile, broader Asian currencies were mixed while the dollar index was marginally lower.
Investors' focus is on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index report, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, due on Friday.
Sticky U.S. inflation, mostly robust growth data, and comments by Fed policymakers have prompted investors to dial back expectations of rate cuts this year. Futures are pricing in just one-and-a-half rate cuts in 2024.
Goldman Sachs last week said it is moving its forecast of the Fed’s first rate cut back one meeting, from July to September.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.20; onshore one-month forward premium at 7 paisa
** Dollar index down at 104.42
** Brent crude futures up 0.2% at $83.3 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.46%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $112.7 mln worth of Indian shares on May. 24
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $78.5 mln worth of Indian bonds on May. 24
