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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

* Rupee depreciated again on Monday amid higher crude oil prices and strong dollar. The dollar index rallied to fresh six month highs on Monday due to rise in 10-year US government yields.

* USDINR is expected to move towards the higher end of the consolidation range 82.80-83.30 amid strong dollar. However, the optimism of bond index inclusion is likely to prevent the depreciation in the rupee. Meanwhile, expectation of weaker set of economic numbers from US could also restrict the upside in the dollar. USDINR is expected to face the resistance near 83.30. Only a sustained move above 83.30 would rise towards 83.40.

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro lost more than 0.50% on Monday amid strong dollar and dovish comments from the ECB members. The Euro is likely to remain under pressure amid increasing probability of pause in the rate hike cycle by the ECB. Further weaker economic growth could also hurt the pair . Euro could face the resistance near 1.0630 and weaken further towards 1.0540. EURINR is likely to face the hurdle near 88.60 and weaken towards 88.00.

* The pound hit fresh six month lows on Monday amid strong dollar and sluggish growth outlook in UK. The pair is expected to slide towards 1.2160 as long as it trades under 1.2260. Only close below 1.2160 would weaken further towards 1.21. GBPINR is expected to move towards 101.20, as long as the pair trades below 102.20.

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