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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee appreciated on Friday amid likely dollar sales from central bank. Meanwhile, further gains in rupee was limited due to elevated crude oil prices and risk aversion in the global markets

• Rupee is expected to appreciate today amid weakness in dollar and expectation of correction in US treasury yields from multi year highs. Dollar is losing its steam on dovish statements from Fed officials. Comments from policymakers cemented expectations that Fed will leave its interest rate unchanged in upcoming meeting. However, sharp gains may be prevented on elevated crude oil prices and weak global market sentiments amid risk of wider conflict in Middle East. USDINR is likely to slip back towards 83.00 level as long as it sustains below 83.25 levels

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro edged higher on Friday amid weak dollar. However, gains were limited as German producer prices fell in September, a dovish factor for ECB policy. For today, EURUSD is likely to rise further towards 1.0620 levels as long as it remains above 1.0550 levels amid soft dollar. However, sharp upside may be capped on risk aversion in the global market and expectation of disappointing economic data from Euro zone. EURINR may move north towards 88.25 level as long as it stays above 87.80 levels

• Pound is expected to rise towards 1.2230 level amid weakness in dollar. Meanwhile, disappointing economic data from Britain reinforced fears about health of economy. GBPINR is likely to rise towards 101.25 level as long as it trades above 100.70 level

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