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Below the perspective on today’s GDP data By Shlok Srivastav, Co-founder & COO, Appreciate, a SEBI and IFSCA-registered fintech company

“The quarterly GDP estimates for the October-December quarter will send out an emphatic signal to foreign institutional investors that in a gloomy global macroeconomic environment, India is holding its own and delivering a performance that merits the position of an economic outlier. It is critical to note the difference between the released quarterly GDP growth figures and the Bloomberg Economists’ forecast. The December quarter GDP growth rate stood at 8.4% against the Bloomberg Economists’ forecast of 6.6%. Clearly, markets and economists alike need to revise their projections upwards on India’s future economic roadmap. 

There was more good news in store as the Second Advanced Estimates re-calibrated India’s GDP growth for FY2023-24 to 7.6% from the previous projection of 7.3%. Both these developments, that is, the substantial bump in quarterly growth rate and the recalibration in the Second Advanced Estimates are most welcome. However, economic headwinds continue to persist in the form of tumbling personal consumption, which grew at a disappointing 3% compared to FY2023 levels. The drubbing in personal consumption levels has, thankfully, been offset by the higher investments in the economy which are projected to grow at 10.3%. 

More concerns are evident from the declining growth rate in agricultural activities signalling weakness in rural economic activity, however, here as well, they have been counter-balanced by robust growth in the mining and manufacturing sector. Pressing ahead, markets would be keenly watching the private consumption space. For India’s economic growth to be truly sustainable, one will have to see a dramatic turnaround in this space.”

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