Quote on Weekly Note 27th December 2025 by Mr. Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd
Below the Quote on Weekly Note 27th December 2025 by Mr. Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd
Cautious Yet Resilient Note Amid Year-End Consolidation
Market Summary
Markets ended the holiday-shortened week with modest gains, extending the ongoing consolidation phase. After a strong start, benchmark indices remained subdued in subsequent sessions amid mixed global cues and thin year-end volumes. The Nifty settled at 26,042.30, while the Sensex closed at 85,041, reflecting a cautious yet resilient undertone.
Key Market Drivers
Market sentiment was shaped by a combination of domestic macroeconomic indicators and global developments. India concluded a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with New Zealand, strengthening its Indo-Pacific engagement and export diversification strategy. On the macro front, growth across the eight core infrastructure sectors slowed sharply to 1.8% in November, highlighting near-term moderation in industrial momentum.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers throughout the week, reversing the brief inflows seen in the previous week. Additionally, stable currency movements, record highs in bullion prices, and holiday-thinned participation contributed to a mixed trading environment.
Sectoral Snapshot
Sectoral performance remained mixed, with metals, energy, and FMCG stocks outperforming, supported by bargain buying and expectations of stabilization in global demand. In contrast, IT, pharma, and realty stocks underperformed due to profit-taking and the absence of fresh triggers. On the NSE, IT stocks witnessed mild weakness, while the Bank Nifty ended marginally lower, reflecting consolidation after recent highs.
Key Events to Watch
The upcoming week marks the transition into calendar year 2026 and is likely to witness heightened volatility due to the December F&O expiry. Key domestic data points to track include Industrial Production data for November, government budget value figures, external debt statistics, and the final HSBC Manufacturing PMI reading.
Globally, markets will closely monitor US macroeconomic cues, including the FOMC minutes and updates on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. These developments could influence near-term expectations around growth, liquidity, and global risk sentiment.
Technical Outlook
Nifty: The index continues to consolidate near record highs, indicating a healthy pause within the broader uptrend. Immediate support is placed in the 25,500–25,700 zone, while resistance is seen near 26,200 initially. A sustained breakout could open the path toward the 26,500–26,700 zone.
Bank Nifty: The banking index remains range-bound in line with the broader market, with support around 58,500 and resistance near 59,500. A decisive breakout or breakdown could trigger the next directional move. On the downside, 57,600 is expected to act as a major support, while a breakout could lead to an upside target near 60,500.
Broader Market: Broader indices continueto show mixed participation. Midcaps appear relatively stronger, while smallcaps are approaching key resistance levels, indicating rotational participation rather than a broad-based risk-off sentiment.
Strategy Ahead
With liquidity conditions remaining muted and key macro cues awaited, markets are likely to stay range-bound in the near term. Investors may continue to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, focusing on large-cap stocks and select cyclicals offering relative value and stability. Traders are advised to remain stock-specific, trail stop-losses on profitable positions, and avoid aggressive leverage amid expected volatility around the expiry and data releases. A balanced approach with disciplined risk management remains crucial as markets enter the New Year.
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