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Below the Quote on Pre-market comment for Wednesday May 13 by Aakash Shah, Technical Analyst, Technical Research Analyst, at Choice Broking

Indian equity markets are expected to open on a flat note, with Gift Nifty trading at 23,420, down by 5 points. Global equities started weak after a subdued handover from Wall Street, with sentiment impacted by weakness in technology stocks, elevated crude oil prices, and sticky inflation concerns.

In the previous session, Bears further tightened their grip on the market on May 12, dragging the Nifty 50 lower by nearly 2 percent and decisively breaking below the crucial 23,800–24,500 consolidation range that had held for several weeks. The weakness was triggered by persistent FII outflows, rising crude oil prices, and the rupee weakening to fresh lows.

Technically, the Nifty slipped below the important 23,400 support level, which coincided with the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the April rally, and also entered the bullish gap zone formed on April 8. As long as the index trades below 23,400, the possibility of further downside toward 23,200–23,000 remains high in the coming sessions. However, a sustained recovery above 23,400 may trigger a pullback toward 23,500–23,600.

The broader trend remains weak as the index continued to trade below all key short-term and long-term moving averages, all of which are sloping downward. Momentum indicators also turned decisively negative. The RSI slipped below the 40 mark to 39.86, while the MACD maintained a bearish crossover with further expansion in negative histogram bars, signalling strengthening downside momentum.

Derivatives data reflects a cautious undertone despite some recovery in PCR levels. The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) rose to 0.93 on May 12 from 0.76 in the previous session, indicating some fresh put writing at lower levels. However, the ratio still reflects cautious positioning amid prevailing market weakness.

India VIX, the market fear gauge, surged 3.92 percent to 19.28 and extended gains for the third straight session. The volatility index moved above all key moving averages, indicating elevated market discomfort and favouring bearish sentiment. Analysts believe the VIX needs to cool toward the 17–15 zone for bulls to regain confidence.

Option chain positioning indicates immediate support near the 23,200–23,000 zone due to selective put writing, while strong resistance is visible around the 23,500–23,600 zone where aggressive call writing emerged after the breakdown.

The Nifty Bank also remained under heavy pressure and extended its lower high–lower low structure for another session. The banking index formed a long bearish candle on the daily charts and continued to trade below all key moving averages, signalling persistent weakness in the sector.

Momentum indicators for Bank Nifty remained firmly bearish. The RSI slipped below the 40 mark to 39.45, while the MACD stayed below both the zero and signal lines with expansion in negative histogram bars, indicating sustained bearish momentum.

Immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed around 53,300–52,777, while resistance is seen near 54,400–55,200. A sustained recovery above resistance levels will be required for any meaningful pullback in the banking space.

Overall, the technical setup suggests continued weakness and elevated volatility in the near term amid persistent global concerns, FII selling, and rising crude oil prices. Unless Nifty manages to reclaim and sustain above the 23,400 zone, bears are likely to maintain control over the market in the upcoming sessions.

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