Quote on Pre-market comment for Friday July 10 by Sachin Gupta, VP - Technical Research at Choice Broking
Below the Quote on Pre-market comment for Friday July 10 by Sachin Gupta, VP - Technical Research at Choice Broking
Indian equity markets are expected to open on a positive note, with Gift Nifty trading at 24,140, up by 146 points. Asian markets started the session on a mixed footing, while U.S. futures remained largely flat ahead of key Federal Reserve cues and geopolitical developments. Despite the positive indication from Gift Nifty, traders may continue to witness stock-specific and range-bound activity as the market seeks confirmation of a sustainable recovery.
In the previous session, the Nifty 50 rebounded sharply after Wednesday's decline and ended higher by around 0.3 percent. The recovery was led by buying at lower levels, helping the index defend the crucial 23,800 support zone. However, the index failed to sustain at higher levels and closed off the day's high, indicating that traders remain cautious near resistance levels. The broader structure remains constructive, but confirmation of a stronger uptrend is still awaited.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 formed a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, resembling an inverted hammer-type formation after a sharp decline. Such a pattern often signals a potential bullish reversal, provided it is confirmed by follow-through buying in subsequent sessions. The index managed to close above the 50-day EMA but remained below the 20-day and 100-day EMAs due to profit booking at higher levels. The RSI improved to 50.43 but continues to remain below its reference line, reflecting neutral momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD is on the verge of a bearish crossover, with the histogram nearly flattening, indicating that momentum remains fragile despite the recovery.
The immediate focus for market participants remains the 24,200–24,300 zone, which is likely to act as a crucial resistance area. A sustained move above this zone can strengthen bullish sentiment and pave the way for a rally towards 24,500. On the downside, 23,800 remains the key support level, and a decisive break below it may increase the probability of a decline towards 23,600.
Derivatives data reflects a mildly positive undertone. The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) improved to 0.94 from 0.81, indicating increased put writing activity and a gradual improvement in market sentiment. Although the PCR remains below the stronger bullish zone above 1.0, the rise suggests that traders are beginning to build support positions at lower levels.
The India VIX declined sharply by 8.97 percent to 13.36, reversing a large portion of the previous session's spike. The cooling volatility gauge indicates improving comfort among market participants. However, a sustained decline towards the 11–12 zone would provide stronger support to bullish sentiment and improve market stability.
Option chain positioning suggests immediate support around the 23,800–24,000 zone, where put writers remain active. On the upside, significant call writing is visible around the 24,200–24,300 zone, making it an important hurdle for the index. A breakout above this resistance band could trigger fresh buying momentum.
Bank Nifty also witnessed a recovery and formed a bullish candle resembling a bullish harami pattern after the previous session's sharp decline. The banking index continues to trade above its medium- and long-term moving averages and remains above the 20-day EMA, reflecting resilience. However, momentum indicators remain mixed. The RSI improved to 52.7 but remains below its reference line, while the MACD continues to maintain a bearish crossover with expanding red histogram bars. This suggests that although price action has improved, confirmation of a stronger uptrend is still required.
Overall, the technical setup suggests a positive opening with a cautiously optimistic bias. While the formation of reversal patterns in both Nifty and Bank Nifty indicates the possibility of further recovery, confirmation through a sustained move above resistance levels is essential. Until Nifty decisively crosses the 24,200–24,300 zone, range-bound trading may continue. The immediate trading range for Nifty is seen between 23,800 and 24,300, and a breakout beyond either side is likely to determine the next directional move.
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