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Below the Quote on Pre-market comment 29th September 2025 by Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst, Choice Broking

Indian benchmark indices are expected to open on a positive note today, with the GIFT Nifty indicating a marginal uptick of 64 points in the Nifty 50. Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic; however, persistent volatility and mixed global cues continue to weigh on investor confidence.

The Nifty slipped below the crucial 24,750 level and closed at 24,654 in the previous session. It now trades under its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, while nearing the 200-day EMA—a sign of weakness in the short-term trend. A breakdown below 24,500 could trigger a decline toward 24,400 (200-day EMA) and further to 24,180. On the upside, resistance is placed at 24,750, 24,880, and 25,000, but unless these levels are reclaimed, the short-term bias will remain negative.

Bank Nifty ended the week at 54,389, down 586 points, marking its third consecutive daily decline after slipping below 54,500. On the weekly chart, however, it managed to stay above the 20-week EMA, showing some resilience. A breakdown below 54,000 could drag the index toward 53,784 (200-day EMA) and 53,500, while resistance lies at 54,900, 55,270, and 55,500. Indicators present a mixed view — RSI at 40.92 is showing early signs of improvement, but with the index trading below its 20- and 50-day EMAs and hovering near the 200-day EMA, caution remains warranted.

On the flows front, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling streak for the fifth consecutive session on September 26, offloading equities worth Rs.5,687 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), on the other hand, absorbed the selling pressure, purchasing equities worth Rs.5,843 crore on the same day.

Given the prevailing uncertainty and heightened volatility, traders are advised to maintain a cautious “wait-and-watch” stance, especially in leveraged positions. Booking partial profits on rallies and keeping tight trailing stop-losses remain prudent. Fresh long positions should only be considered if the Nifty sustains above the 25,000 mark. While the broader outlook remains cautiously bullish, close monitoring of breakout levels and global market developments will be essential in the sessions ahead.

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