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2025-07-31 12:46:51 pm | Source: Quantace Research
Quote on Market post US tariff announcement by Karthick Jongadla, smallcase Manager and Founder at Quantace Research
Quote on Market post US tariff announcement by Karthick Jongadla, smallcase Manager and Founder at Quantace Research

Below the Quote on Market post US tariff announcement by Karthick Jongadla, smallcase Manager and Founder at Quantace Research 

 

Washington’s 25 % blanket tariff is dramatic, but Indian trade has weathered sharper blows before. After the 1998 Pokhran-II nuclear tests the U.S. triggered Glenn-Amendment sanctions; even so, India’s exports to the United States jumped from roughly $7 billion in 1998 to over $21 billion by 2008, while GDP growth averaged about 7 % through that decade. History shows sanctions sting but seldom derail the structural story

Today’s duty hurts high-value gems, generics and apparel, but the macro drag still looks capped at 40–50 bp of FY-26 GDP. Crucially, the ‘additional penalty’ tied to Russian oil remains blank; the White House has issued no HS-code list or rate, suggesting the tone will moderate once remaining negotiations close

Near-term volatility is inevitable—equity risk-premia rise, the rupee may drift to 87—but domestic liquidity stays deep (Rs.29,000 crore monthly SIP inflows) and policy buffers are ample. New Delhi can accelerate PLI incentives, widen duty-drawback for SMEs and fast-track deals with the EU and Gulf partners to cushion exporters. Net-net, this is a speed-breaker, not a U-turn; investors using a 24-month lens should treat any capitulation pricing as a dividend, not an exit cue. Long-term allocators should stay focused on structural drivers across capex, consumption, credit, and ongoing digitalisation of the economy, and supply-chain formalisation.

 

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