Quote on CPI data from Rajeev Sharan, Head of Research, Brickwork Ratings
Below the Quote on CPI data from Rajeev Sharan, Head of Research, Brickwork Ratings
"India's headline CPI inflation rose to 4.82% in August 2026 from 4.45% in July, a fourth straight monthly increase, though still within the RBI's tolerance band. Food inflation climbed to 5.95%, driven by sharp spikes in onion (+48.3%), garlic (+43.6%) and ginger (+73.8%), even as tomato and potato stayed in deep deflation, pointing to volatile vegetable dynamics rather than a broad-based food shock. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, is estimated near 4.3%, kept elevated by gold and silver prices amid geopolitical risk aversion and firm crude-linked transport costs.
Notably, wholesale inflation at 9.92% runs well above retail, but this gap largely reflects producer-level fuel and metals pressures that are not fully reaching consumers, given that CPI is services-heavy and retail fuel prices remain cushioned. Going forward, we expect headline inflation to stay range-bound near 4.5-5.0%, with food the key swing factor amid uneven monsoon and El Niño-related uncertainty. The main risk is that high wholesale food and input costs eventually push up retail prices, alongside any rise in crude oil or fresh volatility in vegetable prices."
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