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Below the Quote on Copper Market Commentary for 26th September 2025 by Mr. Navneet Damani, Head of Commodity Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Copper prices have soared almost 20% this year on tightening supply and relentless demand from the global energy transition. The rally has been fueled by electrification, EV adoption, grid upgrades, renewable installations, and a surge in AI-driven data centers, all of which are highly copper-intensive.

On the supply front, conditions have tightened significantly. The recent mudflow incident at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which accounted for ~4% of global mined copper supply, removed an estimated 250,000+ tonnes from 2025 production. Refining bottlenecks and a scarcity of concentrate have further slowed the translation of mine projects into refined copper output.

These pressures have driven inventories to multi-year lows, below the 5-year average. For the first 7 months of the year, the market was in a 101k tons surplus compared with a 401k tons surplus in the same period a year earlier according to ICSG. We expect prices to soar to $11,700 as structural demand growth collides with constrained supply, setting the stage for further upside.

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