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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee depreciated on Monday amid strong dollar and weakness in Asian currencies. Further, dollar purchase by state-run banks have limited the rupee’s rally.

• Rupee is likely to move in sideways range ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting this week. Better than expected US economic data would support the dollar to hold its edge before the Fed policy outcome. Further, higher crude oil prices and weaker global risk sentiments would also weigh on the rupee. Meanwhile, investors will eye on the monetary policy from Bank of Japan which could bring volatility in to the market. Further, strong inflows into the domestic markets could support the rupee to trim its losses. USDINR March likely to move in the band of 82.80-83.00. Only close above 83.00 it would test 83.10.

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro gave up its early advance and hit its lowest level in 1 week on dovish comments from ECB Governing council member de Cos who said the ECB may start cutting interest rate in June. For today, EURUSD is likely to face stiff resistance near 1.09 level and move towards 1.0845 amid growing speculation that ECB would start cutting rates this summer to support the growth. EURINR March is likely to weaken towards 90.00, as long as it trades under 90.60.

• Pound also traded lower amid strong dollar. The pair is likely to trade weaker as long as it stays below 1.2760 and move towards the key support at 1.27. We expect the pair to move in a very tight range ahead of this week’s monetary policy from Fed and BOE. GBPINR March is likely to move in the range of 105.30 and 106.00 ahead of the policy. Only a move below 105.30 it would slip towards 105.00 level.

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