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The platinum market is projected to face a deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025, with a shortfall of 539,000 troy ounces. Despite a 1% decline in overall demand, constrained mine supply and rising recycling recovery are influencing market dynamics. Automotive demand is expected to hit an eight-year high, supported by stricter emission standards and growing hybrid vehicle sales. Jewellery demand continues its upward trend, while above-ground stocks are set to fall by 15% to cover the deficit. The World Platinum Investment Council attributes these changes to South Africa’s production challenges and platinum-for-palladium substitution in the auto sector, maintaining a bullish outlook for the commodity.

Key Highlights

* Platinum deficit to reach 539,000 ounces in 2025.

* Automotive demand to hit an eight-year high next year.

* Jewellery demand rises for the second consecutive year.

* South Africa's mine supply falls by 2%; recycling rises 12%.

* Above-ground platinum stocks to shrink by 15%.

The global platinum market is set to remain in a structural deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025, with a shortfall of 539,000 troy ounces, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC). This follows a revised estimated deficit of 682,000 ounces in 2024. Prices are likely to remain supported as the supply constraints continue amidst robust demand trends.

Automotive demand, a key driver for platinum prices, is forecast to rise to its highest level since 2017 due to increased sales of hybrid vehicles, stricter emissions legislation, and the substitution of platinum for palladium. Jewellery demand, which rebounded last year, is also projected to grow, reflecting renewed consumer interest.

On the supply side, South African production, a significant contributor to global mine output, is expected to decline by 2% in 2025, partially offset by a 12% recovery in recycled platinum. The constrained mine output underpins price stability, even as demand faces minor adjustments due to economic uncertainties and high interest rates.

Other news highlights include above-ground stockpiles shrinking by 15%, reducing inventory levels to just over four months of global demand. Additionally, a stable power supply in South Africa this year allowed mines to process backlogged inventory, easing some immediate supply pressures.

The platinum market's sustained deficit underscores its critical role in emission control technologies and its rising industrial applications. As supply-side challenges persist, the commodity continues to attract investor interest.

Finally

The platinum market deficit in 2025 signals strong price support, with limited supply and growing automotive and jewellery demand driving bullish sentiment.

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