Outlook for 2024 on behalf of Kedar Kadam, Director - Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors
Below the Outlook for 2024 on behalf of Kedar Kadam, Director - Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors
We expect India’s resilient economic performance to continue well into 2024, driven by the nation’s large and growing market size, a young workforce, and a committed policy emphasis on education reforms, upskilling, manufacturing, tech-enabled governance, infrastructure development, and improved regional connectivity.
As we approach the 2024 general elections, we expect consumption growth to be driven by subsidies and transfer payments. For instance, we have already seen increased allocation towards the rural employment program, an increase in cooking gas subsidies, and an extension of the food subsidy program.
Post elections although the government capex is expected to moderate, we expect private capex to pick up further driven by
A) A well-capitalized & cleaned banking sector balance sheet (steady credit supply)
B) a deleveraged manufacturing sector balance sheet
C) a further pick in China plus one theme.
On the downside the key factors to watch out for will be
A) Global macro & geopolitical developments
B) Domestic inflation trajectory especially food inflation
C) a Slowdown in the pace of rural recovery
D) a narrow rate easing cycle
E) a further decline in exports
F) Fiscal balances
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