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Indian markets continued their winning run for a third straight session on Thursday amid buying across sectors, barring IT and power. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start amid weakness in global peers. Investors would have their eyes peeled for US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, to look for further clues about one or more possible interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Closer home, some cautiousness will come as a report by ICRA stated that GDP expansion is expected to moderate to a six quarter low of 6.0 per cent in Q1FY25 from 7.8 per cent in Q4FY24, amidst a contraction in Government capital expenditure and a dip in urban consumer confidence. It further added that the growth in the gross value added (GVA) is estimated to ease to 5.7 per cent in Q1FY25 from 6.3 per cent in Q4FY24. However, foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. As per NSE data, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) were net buyers of Indian equities worth Rs 1,371.79 crore. Sentiments will get boost as the finance ministry, in the monthly economic report for July, has maintained a positive stance on the economy, keeping the growth forecast at 6.5-7 per cent for the current financial year (2024-25/FY25) ahead of the release of gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the April-June quarter (Q1). This comes even as the Reserve Bank of India’s consumer confidence and industrial outlook surveys remain cautious. Also, finance ministry’s Department of Economic Affairs said food inflation in India is expected to fall in the coming months as plentiful monsoon rains have replenished water levels in reservoirs. As per latest data, retail inflation in India came down to to 3.5 per cent in July 2024, the lowest since September 2019, primarily because of a moderation in food inflation. Meanwhile, Commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal has said that the bilateral trade between India and Africa was $100 billion in 2022 and there is a need to double this to $200 billion by 2030. He said that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has identified four potential sectors - automobiles, agriculture and agro-processing, pharmaceutical and transportation and logistics- where the two sides can collaborate. There will be some reaction in cement industry stocks as rating agency CRISIL said India’s cement makers are expected to invest capital expenditure (capex) worth Rs 1.25 trillion over FY25 to FY27. They said the capex is driven by a healthy demand outlook and a quest for market share. CRISIL said the projected outlay will be 1.8 times the capex during the past three financial years. However, they expect the credit risk profiles of manufacturers to remain stable.

The US markets ended lower on Thursday weighed down by technology shares, as Treasury yields rose on easing recession fears in the US, ahead of the Fed chair's speech. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Friday as investors everywhere trained their eyes on the gathering of central bank officials from around the world to look for cues about an interest rate easing cycle as inflation moderates gradually.

Back home, in a range bound session, Indian equity benchmarks managed to garner marginal gains on Thursday ahead of the US jobless claims data and the Jackson Hole Symposium late today. The start of day was on higher note, following the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes which indicated a strong likelihood of a rate cut by the U.S. central bank next month. The July Fed meeting minutes showed 'vast majority' of policymakers thought move to lower borrowing costs was 'appropriate' if data continued to come in as expected. Underlying sentiment remained supported by a continued fall in oil prices. Some support came after Commerce & Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India and Africa should target doubling two-way trade to $200 billion in seven years and try to include more African countries in the partnership so that its full potential is reached. A positive trade persisted over the Dalal Street for the whole trading session. Domestic sentiment remained optimistic amid a private report stating that the government has set up an inter-ministerial group to firm up the contours of the credit guarantee scheme for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) announced in the budget. The MSME ministry will move the scheme for the expenditure finance committee's approval after consultations with stakeholders. However, gains were limited, as Indian private sector expanded at a slower pace in the month of August due to a softer rise in manufacturing output and weakening of new orders. The flash survey data from S&P Global showed that the flash HSBC composite output index dropped slightly to 60.5 in August from 60.7 in July. However, a score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. Finally, the BSE Sensex jumped 147.89 points or 0.18% to 81,053.19, and the CNX Nifty was up by 41.30 points or 0.17% to 24,811.50.

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