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Indian markets are likely to get positive start on Thursday tracking gains in Asian counterparts helped by a stabilising geopolitical scenario. Also, continued fall in crude oil prices amid easing supply concerns with tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz, will aid the domestic markets. However, some cautiousness may come with foreign fund outflows, as Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers of shares worth Rs 1,843.40 crore on June 24.

Some of the key factors to be watched: 

India, US conclude two-day trade talks: India and the US reviewed the progress in negotiations for an interim bilateral trade agreement during a two-day ministerial meeting and discussed core elements, including market access, digital trade and non-tariff barriers, as both countries aim to conclude the pact before Washington’s temporary 10 per cent tariff expires on July 24.

Jaishankar, South Korean FM discuss deepening strategic partnership in Seoul: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar have held talks with his South Korean counterpart Cho Hyun, focusing on bilateral cooperation and the rapidly changing global situation. The talks focused on follow-up measures in the key areas of trade, investment and finance, agreed during South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s state visit to India in April.

Gold loan lenders ringfenced well from price correction risk: Crisil said strong risk management processes protect the asset quality of the gold loan portfolio of domestic lenders, as measured by ultimate credit loss from potential correction in gold prices, despite the recent hike in the regulatory loan-to-value (LTV) limit to 85 per cent.

RBI aligns forex risk capital charge with global standards: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has aligned the computation of capital charge for foreign exchange risk of banks with international standards. Banks would compute Net Open Position and maintain capital charge for foreign exchange risk at both group or consolidated level and solo or standalone level.

India to release first-ever monthly index tracking services sector output from July 14: The new index measuring the output of the country's services industry, with 2024-25 as the base year, will be released each month with a 60-day lag. The first-ever Index of Services Production (ISP) for April 2026 will be announced on July 14.

On global front: The US markets ended mostly in red on Wednesday as investors remained cautious about elevated technology valuations and the outlook for US interest rates. Asian markets are trading mostly higher on Thursday after Micron, a US-based semiconductor company, reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and guided to higher revenue in the current quarter.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended on strong note on Wednesday, as investors cheered the news of several stranded ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which was reflected in a sharp fall in the crude oil prices. The recovery was led by heavy buying in Realty, IT and Banking shares. Also, optimism over advancing US-India trade deal talks, gave markets a fillip. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 790.54 points or 1.04% to 76,991.22 and the CNX Nifty was up by 197.55 points or 0.83% to 24,021.65.

Some of the important factors in trade:

India, US hold high-level trade talks to advance interim deal: In a significant step toward strengthening bilateral relations, India and the United States have held high-level trade talks aimed at salvaging and recalibrating a proposed bilateral trade agreement after changes in US tariff policy disrupted a framework negotiated earlier this year. 

RBI issues directions on TReDS platforms to ease MSME access, support lenders: With an aim to simplify the onboarding process for MSME sellers and enable financiers to avail credit guarantees for their exposures, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has issued final directions on Trade Receivables Discounting System (TReDS) platforms. 

India’s GDP growth to be at 6.6% in FY27 amid energy stress: S&P Global Ratings said energy stress, sub-par monsoon and slowing global growth will pull down India's GDP growth to 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal.

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