Opening Bell : Markets likely to get gap-up opening following latest inflation readings in India, US
Indian markets ended lower with cut of around half a percent on Monday as investors booked profits a day after clocking robust gains on the first session of Samvat 2080. Stock markets were closed on Tuesday for Diwali Balipratipada. Today, markets are likely to get gap-up opening following latest inflation readings in India and the US. In the US, consumer prices remained flat in October versus expectations of a gain of 0.1 per cent MoM. On an annual basis, the CPI climbed 3.2 per cent after rising 3.7 per cent in September. Besides, domestic retail inflation eased to a five-month low of 4.87 per in October from 5.02 per cent in September. India’s wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the seventh month in a row in October at (-) 0.52 per cent on easing prices of food items. Some support will come with a private report that the Indian economy likely grew 6.7% in the July-September quarter. Traders may take note of report that Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has revealed that the central government is poised to introduce a comprehensive e-commerce policy and rules. Meanwhile, Chief negotiators of India and the UK are expected to soon hold next round of talks for the proposed free trade agreement to iron out differences on issues such as automobiles, medical devices, and movement of professionals, an official said. The UK team may come here for the 14th round of negotiations so that the talks can be concluded at the earliest. Metal stocks will be in focus as steel secretary Nagendra Nath Sinha said the steel industry plays a critical role in the country's growth trajectory. Sinha emphasised on the government's commitment to fostering a conducive environment for the steel sector while speaking during the inauguration of the steel ministry's pavilion at the India International Trade Fair. There will be some reaction in infrastructure sector stocks with report that as many as 417 infrastructure projects, each entailing an investment of Rs 150 crore or more, have been hit by cost overruns of more than Rs 4.77 lakh crore in September this year. Meanwhile, ASK Automotive is likely to make market debut today. The issue price is fixed at Rs 282.
The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as tamer than expected inflation data bolstered the view that the Fed was probably done with rate hikes. Asian markets are trading in green on Wednesday tracking overnight gains on Wall Street.
Back home, Indian equity benchmarks concluded Monday's trading session in negative territory as investors engaged in profit-booking activities ahead of the scheduled release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data later in the day. Markets started the week on a feeble note and traded under pressure for whole day as traders were cautious with a private report stating that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) selling spree continued as they dumped Indian equity worth over Rs 5,800 crore this month so far on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Selling further crept in as the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) cooled to a three-month low of 5.8 per cent in September from 10.3 per cent in August, on the back of moderation across all sub-sectors and use-based categories. Sentiments remained dampened as Fitch Ratings stated the geopolitical uncertainty from the conflict in Middle East could upend countries’ inflation and growth calculations, leading to a higher than expected inflation for India as well. It stated higher oil prices would lead to higher-than-expected inflation rates in 2024, followed by corrections in 2025. Turkiye sees the highest percentage point rise in forecast inflation, followed by India and Poland. However, the India and Poland’s relative increases would be much large. Traders paid no heed towards the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) stating that gross direct tax collection increased by 17.59 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 12.37 trillion in the period from April 1 to November 9. Direct tax collection (net of refunds) stood at Rs 10.6 trillion, 21.82 per cent higher than the net collection for the comparable period last year. Refunds amounting to Rs 1.77 trillion have been issued during the period. Traders also overlooked Union Minister for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) Narayan Rane’s statement that the MSME sector has achieved a significant milestone by generating over 15 crore employment opportunities. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 325.58 points or 0.50% to 64,933.87 and the CNX Nifty was down by 82.00 points or 0.42% to 19,443.55.
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Weekly Market Wrap by Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities