Opening Bell : Markets likely to get cautious start ahead of GDP numbers
Indian markets corrected sharply and settled down by over 1 per cent on the monthly futures and options expiry day, weighed by weakness in global markets on Thursday. Today, markets likely to get cautious start with weak cues from Asia-Pacific markets and the absence of direction from Wall Street. Escalating geopolitical tensions following Russia’s renewed attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, likely to weight on domestic sentiments. Another worrying factor for the markets will be the resumption of selling by foreign investors after a brief 2-day net buying. According to data available on the Sebi website, FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 11,756.25 crore on November 28. Investors will be eyeing GDP numbers of the country to be out later in the day for more directional cues. As per a private report, India's economy is expected to have slowed in the July-September quarter, growing at the slowest pace in 18 months, weighed down by weak urban consumption following a rise in food prices despite an increase in government spending. However, traders may take note of report that Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal Thursday termed the US President-elect Donald Trump as a friend of India and brushed aside apprehensions that the new administration may impose some tariffs on Indian goods, saying there was no need to jump the gun. Meanwhile, The BSE has announced change in the expiry day for its key weekly and monthly derivatives contracts - Sensex, Bankex and Sensex 50 - from Friday to Tuesday. The changes will come into effect from January 1, 2025. As per the existing schedule, the Sensex contracts will expire for the November series today. Banking stocks will be in focus as the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed that credit growth in the fortnight ending November 15 slowed to 11.15 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), while deposit growth slightly outpaced credit growth, reaching 11.21 per cent Y-o-Y. There will be some reaction in sugar stocks with report that Sugar cooperatives, which accounted for almost 30 per cent of India’s annual sugar output as of 2023-24 season (Oct-Sept), are against repeated attempts to raise the issue of labour exploitation in their factories and farms, alleging that it is a ploy to divert customers from cooperatives to others. Metal stocks will be in limelight as Crisil Ratings said the drop in the prices of steel will impact the operating profitability of primary steel producers in the domestic market. Moreover, Enviro Infra Engineers IPO will list on the bourses.
The US markets remained closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Friday as investors digested Tokyo November inflation figures and industrial production figures from South Korea.
Back home, Indian equity benchmarks experienced a sharp decline and ended with losses of around one and half percent on Thursday due to intense selling in market heavyweights Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Finance amid a mixed trend in global equities. After starting the day on a cautious note, the benchmarks witnessed a sharp selloff thereafter, as traders remained on sidelines ahead of India’s GDP growth data for the latest July-September 2024 quarter (Q2 FY25) to be released on Friday. The GDP is expected to slow to 6.2-6.9 per cent this quarter due to factors like heavy rains and weak corporate margins. Concerns over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policy stance and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. rate cut trajectory too weighed on sentiment. Traders overlooked India Ratings and Research’s (Ind-Ra) report that India’s fiscal deficit is expected to be 19 basis points lower at 4.75% of the gross domestic product (GDP) than budgeted in 2024-25, due to fiscal discipline and slower economic activity in the first half of the year. It noted that the government is on path to achieve the target of 4.5% in 2025-26. Traders paid no heed towards a private report that President-elect Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25 percent tariff on Canada and Mexico after assuming office in January 2025 could end up helping India, among other countries, especially on items that are India’s top exports to the United States. Meanwhile, the Network Readiness Index 2024 (NRI 2024) report showed that India has improved its position by eleven slots and is now placed at 49th rank as against 60th rank scored in the NRI 2023 report. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 1190.34 points or 1.48% to 79,043.74, and the CNX Nifty was down by 360.75 points or 1.49% to 23,914.15.
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Quote on?Market Wrap by Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities