Opening Bell : Domestic indices likely to extend previous session`s weakness with negative start
Indian markets ended in deep red on Wednesday amid a broad-based sell-off. Today, domestic indices are likely to extend their previous session’s weakness with negative start amid lack of supportive global cues. Investors will be eyeing the WPI inflation data for February to be out later in the day for more directional cues. Apart from this, there will be some volatility in the markets amid the weekly F&O expiry. Foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 4,595.06 crore on March 13, provisional data from the NSE showed. There will be some cautiousness as a SBI Research report stated that India's retail inflation gauged by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain slightly above 5 per cent till May before declining towards 3 per cent in July. The retail inflation print is expected to stay below 5 per cent beginning November till the end of the financial year 2024-25. However, traders may take note of report that NITI Aayog has proposed a series of measures to boost exports from micro, small and medium enterprises, including boosting e-commerce exports, creating a comprehensive trade portal, promoting ease of merchandise exports, improving access to export finance and creation of one stop information channel for exporters. Moreover, the market regulator is expected to put forth proposals on ease of doing business for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), alternative investment funds (AIFs) and portfolio managers, and on implementing optional T+0 settlement before its Board at its next meeting. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is to meet with its Board on March 15. There will be some buzz in the Auto stocks after the central government announced a new scheme, with a total outlay of Rs 500 crore, to promote the adoption of electric mobility in India. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus after industry body Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) revised the sugar production estimate for 2023-24 upwards to 34 million tonnes; up by 2.9% from its earlier estimate of 33.05 million tonnes issued in January this year. There will be some reaction in edible oil industry stocks as Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) data showed that India's vegetable oils import fell 13 per cent year-on-year in February to nearly 9.75 lakh tonne. It said the import of vegetable oils (comprising edible oils and non-edible oils) during February stood at 9,74,85 tonne as compared to 11,14,481 tonne in the year-ago period. Meanwhile, Gopal Snacks will make its market debut against the issue price of Rs 401. Index major, Reliance Industries will also be in focus as it will buy Paramount Global's entire 13 per cent stake in Viacom 18 for about $517 million (Rs 4,286 crore).
The US markets ended mostly in red on Wednesday as investors took profits in chipmaker stocks, while they braced for producer price data and further clues on the inflation trend ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday amid reports that that strong wage hikes in Japan could see the central bank move from its ultra-easy monetary policy next week.
Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended Wednesday’s trading session in deep red amid selling across the sectors. Key indices started the session on a positive note amid foreign fund inflows. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 73.12 crore on March 12, provisional data from the NSE showed. Some support also came with data showing that remaining within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) comfort zone of 6 per cent for the sixth month in a row, India’s retail inflation eased to a four-month low of 5.09 per cent in February 2024. However, markets soon erased early gains and slipped into the negative zone, as traders turned cautious with data showing that growth in factory output, based on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), slowed to 3.8 per cent in January 2024, mainly due to poor performance of manufacturing, mining and power sectors. It was 5.8 in January 2023. The pace of decline intensified as the day progressed, pushing the Sensex and Nifty below psychological 72,800 and 22,000 levels respectively. Sentiments remained dampened with a report of economic think tank GTRI stating that with escalating everyday attacks and no end in sight, the Red Sea crisis will adversely impact trade volumes in substantial ways in 2024. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that rising shipping, and insurance costs and delayed arrival of shipments will continue to disrupt global value chains, squeeze margins, and make exports of many low-margin products unviable from current locations. Traders also avoided taking risk ahead of Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data, which is slated to be released on tomorrow. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 906.07 points or 1.23% to 72,761.89 and the CNX Nifty was down by 338.00 points or 1.51% to 21,997.70.
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Weekly Market Wrap by Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities