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Indian markets ended volatile session in red on Friday as U.S. 10-year treasury yields rose for the third straight session and edged near three-month highs, following hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start of the F&O expiry week as investors’ focus will shift to GDP data due this week in both India and the US along with major macro-economic data. There will be some cautiousness as data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed that India's foreign exchange reserves declined to $616.10 billion as on February 16. However, foreign fund inflows likely to aid sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 1,276.09 crore on February 23, provisional data from the NSE showed. Traders may be taking encouragement after Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership, India has moved up to the fifth position from the 10th spot in the world in terms of economy. Besides, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will meet heads of several top fintech companies including Amazon Pay, Zerodha, LendingKart, Pine Labs, and Cred on February 26, 2024 along with a deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to discuss the ongoing regulatory issues in the sector. There will be some buzz in infrastructure stocks the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) said the overall highway construction in the country would be around 12,000-13,000 kilometres by the end of this financial year (FY24). Asset Reconstruction Companies stocks will be in focus as the CRISIL-Assocham report the assets under management of Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs) are expected to grow at eight to nine per cent to touch the Rs 1.5 trillion mark by March 2024. It may expand at a slower pace of 5-8 per cent in the next financial year (FY25), where the asset base could reach the Rs 1.6 trillion level. There will be some reaction in paper industry stocks as the Indian Paper Manufacturers Association (IPMA) said imports of paper and paperboards have increased by 37 per cent to around 1.47 million tonnes in April-December this fiscal, which have hit the local paper mills. Meanwhile, the markets will be open for trading on Saturday (March 02, 2024) as stock exchanges test its Disaster Recovery preparedness. Trading will be in two sessions on Saturday, from 09.15 to 10 AM followed by 11.30 to half-past noon.

The US markets ended mostly in green on Friday with all three Wall Street benchmarks scoring weekly gains, as artificial intelligence stocks had enough steam to keep the rally chugging along. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday as investors awaited inflation data from the United States, Japan and Europe that will help refine expectations for future rate moves.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks reversed all of their early gains to end lower in a volatile trade on Friday, due to selling in Oil & Gas, PSU and Energy shares. Markets began session in the green as traders took support with World Economic Forum President Borge Brende’s statement that India is on track to become a $10 trillion economy in coming years and grab the third-largest slot soon. He described the country as a place with optimism not seen elsewhere in a very fragmented and polarised world. Some support also came with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s statement that robust tax collections had given the Centre confidence to go ahead with increased capital expenditure and continue investment in infrastructure projects. However, markets soon turned volatile and consolidated for the day as profit booking on higher levels kept traders on tenterhooks. Some anxiety also came in as India Ratings and Research said India's GDP is expected to grow by 6.5 percent in 2024-25. While this would represent a decline from the statistics ministry's first advance estimate of 7.3 percent for the current financial year, the prospect of the private investment cycle bodes well for the economy. Traders also remained cautious after a private report predicts a rise in dissenters within the Monetary Policy Committee in the next Reserve Bank of India's bi-monthly meetings, signalling potential rifts among RBI members on the economic outlook. The report anticipates at least two out of six MPC members to vote for a cut in the upcoming meetings. Besides, rising crude oil prices, upsurge in bond yields and consistent FII selling also weighed on sentiments on Dalal Street. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 15.44 points or 0.02% to 73,142.80 and the CNX Nifty was down by 4.75 points or 0.02% to 22,212.70.

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