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Nifty :25045

Technical Outlook

Day that was ..

Equity benchmark started concluded the volatile session with a modest gain. The Nifty gained 58 points or 0.25% to settle at 25045. Midcap index relatively outperformed by gaining 0..5%. Sectorally, PSU Banks remained in limelight along with pharma, IT, Metal underperformed.

Technical Outlook :

• Index started the eventful week with a positive gap and gradually marched Index started the truncated week on a positive note. The narrow range price activity has formed a small bodied candle with long lower shadow, indicating breather after recent sharp up move

• Index is likely to open gap-up on back of fall in brent crude prices and global developments. The index has taken a breather after witnessing 2500 points rally over past two week’s. The ongoing consolidation would help index to cool off the overbought conditions and open the door for next leg of up move towards 25500 in the coming weeks. In the process, 24300 would act as immediate support being placement of positive gap recorded on 5th November (23960-24296)

Our constructive bias is further supported by several key observations

• The Nifty maintained its rhythm by arresting the corrective phase after limiting an eight-week losing streak and defending the long-term 200- week EMA, which coincided with the April 26 lows of 22,182. Consequently, forming a double-bottom pattern. Index has finally logged a breakout from this reversal pattern.

• Over the past two weeks, the index has entirely recovered from its 12- week decline (24,774 to 22,180). This swift retracement signals a structural turnaround, opening the door for the next leg of the up move.

• The Indian market had lagged behind its global counterparts due to AIdriven momentum. However, the recent global sell-off in AI-driven stocks could provide a supportive tailwind for the growth-oriented Indian market. FII have seen strongest inflow of >45,000 crore in first 6 session of the November.

• Mirroring the benchmark move, Bank Nifty has also experienced a faster retracement, recouping its 17-week decline in just two weeks. The structural shift in the banking sector, which carries 37% weightage in the Nifty, will likely drive the Nifty higher.

• There has been a significant improvement in the market breadth of the Nifty 500 universe. The percentage of stocks above the 50-days SMA has increased from 10% twelve sessions ago to 50%. This substantial improvement bodes well for the continuation of the ongoing rally.

• A decline in crude oil prices and a cooling off in US 10-Year Bond Yields will further support the rally. Any dips from hereon should be viewed as incremental opportunity to accumulate high-quality stocks backed by strong earnings

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – Formation of higher high low signifies positive bias

• Levels – Buy around 50% retracement of Gifty Nifty’s 2 days range

Nifty Bank : 59741

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

Bank Nifty ended the day on a strong note, up 1.51% at 59741 levels. Meanwhile, the Nifty PSU Bank relatively outperformed by gaining 3.73% for the day.

Technical Outlook :

• Index started the day with a positive opening and gradually marched upward. As a result, daily price action formed a sizable bull candle, indicating an acceleration of the upward momentum.

• Bank Nifty has also experienced a faster retracement, recouping its 17-week decline in just two weeks, indicating structural improvement. Eventually, we expect index to resolve higher and extend the move towards 61700 being February 2026 highs. As per change of polarity principle previous resistance will act as support 58600 levels

• On the oscillator front, daily Stochastic Oscillator closed in overbought condition (placed at 98). Consequently, a couple of days breather at higher levels cannot be entirely ruled out.

• Nifty PSU Bank Index has witnessed 5-months consolidation trendline breakout and faster retracement on weekly as it has retraced 11 weeks decline in 3 weeks. Going ahead we expect it to head towards 9100 levels being 61.8% retracement of entire decline.

• Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Robust recovery from key support of 53800 confirms strong support zone

• Levels : Buy around 2 nd March close.

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