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Nifty :24196

Technical Outlook

Day that was.. The Indian equity benchmark concluded the session with a marginal loss after a volatile weekly expiry day. Nifty settled the day at 24196 down ~0.14%. Market breadth was in favour of decline with an A/D ratio of 1:2. Nifty Midcap, Small cap relatively outperformed the benchmark by gaining 0.60% and 0.90%. Sectorally, barring Auto and BFSI all major indices closed in green wherein Metals and IT were the top contributors.

Technical Outlook:

* Index started the day with a positive gap-up, however witnessed profit booking near the gap resistance (24400) dated 6th March 2026. As a result, daily price action resulted into bear candle with wicks on both sides, indicating heightened volatility post gap-up opening.

* Key point to highlight is that over the past two session, index has been consolidating around its 50-day EMA over the past two sessions, a level it has resisted to clear since February 2025. A decisive sustain and close above this hurdle would signal a revival of upward momentum that would trigger the next leg of the rally toward 24,800 in the coming weeks. Hence, any decline from current levels should be used as buy on dips strategy as strong support is placed at 23500, being 38.2% retracement of recent upmove (22,182-24,280). Wherein focus should be on accumulating quality stock backed by strong Q4 earning.

* On a broader perspective, index has confirmed conclusion of corrective phase by fulfilling prerequisites like close above its last week’s high, sustenance above short-term moving average. In addition to that, faster pace of retracement (as 13 sessions decline entirely retraced back in just 4 sessions), highlights structural turnaround. Hence, formation of higher base amid ongoing consolidation would set the stage for heading towards 24800 in coming weeks

* In the process, volatility would remain elevated on the back of geopolitical development as well as onset of earning season. Hence, we expect stock specific activity to remain in focus. Our constructive bias is further validated by following observations:

1. Faster pace of retracement followed by higher base above short-term moving average confirms trend reversal that augurs well for next leg of up move

2. In tandem with the Russia/Ukraine conflict, index appears to be mirroring current geopolitical scenario, wherein war induced correction arrested around 11% and subsequent one month rally was 9%

3. The Bank Nifty staged a strong rebound after maintaining the rhythm of not correcting >20% that has been maintained since COVID lows 4. Market breadth seen significant improvement as the current reading of % stocks trading above 50- and 200-days SMA has jumped to 70% and 37% compared to last month reading of 15%.

Key Monitorable: A. Further decline in Crude, US, Dollar Index B. Start of Q4 earning season

Intraday Rational:

* Trend - Consolidation near 50-day EMA, indicates breather post recent rally

* Levels - Buy around 38.2% of last 3 days range and previous day low

Nifty Bank :56036

Day that was: The Bank Nifty Index concluded the day on a negative note . BankNifty settle the day at 56036 down 0.47%.

Technical Outlook:

* Index started the day with a positive gap-up, however witnessed profit booking near the gap resistance (57097) dated 10th March 2026. As a result, daily price action resulted into bear candle with wicks on both sides, indicating heightened volatility post gap-up opening.

* Key point to highlight is that Index has been consolidating above its short term 20-day EMA and decisively closed above its phycological mark of 56000 which has been acting as a hurdle from past three session, indicating resumption of the current upmove. Going ahead a decisive close above 200-day EMA will open the door for the next leg of up move towards 57200 in the coming weeks. Hence, any decline from current levels should be used as buy on dips strategy as strong support is placed at 54200, as it is confluence of Gaparea (52800-54800) and 38.2% retracement of March-April decline (56786-49954). Wherein focus should be on accumulating quality stock backed by strong Q4 earning.

* On the broader space, the Nifty PSU Bank relatively underperformed the benchmark and closed marginally negative note down 0.17%. Index is consolidating above its short term 20-day EMA, indicating buying demand at elevated support base. A sustain and close above 100-day EMA would accelerate the next leg of upmove towards 9100 being 61.8% Retracement of Feb-April26 decline

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Consolidation near 50-day EMA, indicates breather post recent rally

* Levels- Buy around 38.2% of last 3 days range and previous day low

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