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Nifty : 24430

Technical Outlook

Day that was ..

• Equity benchmark resumed it upward momentum and closed the session at 24430, up 0.7%. Broader market moved in tandem with benchmark with Nifty Small cap index gaining 0.7%. Sectorally, baring PSU banks and IT, all major indices closed positive Realty, Auto, Consumer durable were the top gainers.

Technical Outlook :

• The index started the week on a positive note and extended its upmove as intraday decline were bought into. The daily price action resulted into bullish candle with higher high-low structure, indicating continuation of upward momentum.

• The index has reclaimed its crucial 200-day EMA for the first time in four months, indicating strengthening of structure from medium to long term perspective that makes us believe Nifty would continue its northbound journey towards initial milestone of 24800 in the coming weeks. This bullish shift validated by the formation of a higher peak and trough has prompted a revision of the support base upward to 23,700.

• Midcap index continued to hover around lifetime highs while smallcap index has seen significant catch-up activity as it is just 2% away from its All Time High. The current traction in broader market is backed by improvement in market breadth as currently 62% of stocks within Nifty 500 universe are trading above their 50 days SMA compared to last week’s reading of 58%, that bodes well for durability of ongoing up move

• Sectorally, Pharma index broken out of 18 months consolidation and clocked a fresh All-time High. The up move since Covid lows has been captured in a well-defined rising channel wherein intermediate corrections arrested around 20%. Post this pharma index has garnered decent returns in subsequent quarters. Mirroring the historical evidence, index has bounced after 20% correction The buoyancy in the equity market is well supported by convergence of favourable macroeconomic tailwinds :

•Easing of geopolitical tension

•Falling crude oil prices

•Rupee appreciation

•RBI’s slew of measures to attract foreign flows into debt instruments

•Q4FY26 GDP growth

•Lower expectations of Fed’s rate hikes

Key Monitorable :

• Fed Minutes

• Commencement of Q1 earnings

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – Higher high-low structure with reclaim position above 200-day EMA for the first time in 4 months, indicating positive bias.

• Levels – Buy around 80% retracement of yesterday range

Nifty Bank : 58291

Technical Outlook

Day that was : Bank Nifty Index ended the day on a positive note up 0.6% at 58291 levels on back of mixed global cues. Nifty PSU Bank relatively underperformed losing 0.8%.

Te chnical Outlook :

• Index started the week on positive note and closed above previous session high. Consequently, the daily price action resulted into bull candle with higher high higher low, indicating positive bias.

• Going ahead we expect index to continue its upward momentum and challenge the recent swing high of 58700, that would pave the way towards 60000 in coming weeks

• The ratio chart of Bank Nifty vs Nifty has witnessed breakout from a 5-years consolidation. This technical setup signals that the banking index is poised to accelerate its relatively outperformance and head towards 60000 in the coming month as it is gap-area formed on 2nd March 2026

• The elevated buying demand highlights strength, thereby any decline should be capitalized as incremental buying opportunity as strong support is placed at 57000 being 20-day EMA coinciding with 38.2% retracement of recent up move(54753- 58706) • PSU Bank Index has formed lower high lower low but taking support in vicinity of 200-day EMA place around 8275 amid oversold condition on stochastics oscillator. Going forward we expect Index to consolidate in range 8500-8200 in coming sessions and set the stage for next leg of up move

Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Trading above its all key-moving averages, indicating inherent strenght

• Levels : Buy around 80% retracement of yesterday range.

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