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Nifty : 24982

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Equity benchmark concluded volatile session on a subdued note. The Nifty settled Wednesday’s session at 24982, down 31 points. However, market breadth remained positive as with A/D ratio of 2:1 as broader market continued with its relative outperformance. Sectorally, pharma, auto, realty outshone while FMCG, oil & gas took a breather

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty pared initial gains post RBI’s policy outcome and settled the session marginally below 25000 mark. The daily price action resulted into bear candle carrying higher hf positive bias amid elevated volatility. The shadows on either side signifies elevated volatility.

* Going ahead, sustainability above 50 days EMA placed around 25000 mark would help index to revive upward momentum and open the door for pullback towards 25500 in coming weeks. In the process, volatility to remain high amidst development on ongoing geopolitical concerns coupled with start of Q2FY25 earning season which would dictate the further trend.

* Structurally, index has maintained the rhythm of not correcting for more than 6% since CY24. In the process, time-wise index has not given negative close for more than 6 sessions. In current scenario as well supportive efforts emerged after 6% correction. Thus we believe, the level of 24800 would continue to act as key support in the near term. Only a decisive close below 24800 due to escalation of geopolitical tension would result into extended correction wherein Nifty would find its feet around 24400 as it is confluence of:

* a) 100 days EMA which has been majorly held since Nov-23 is placed at 24384

* b) The 80% retracement of Aug-Sept rally (23894-26277) is placed at 24370

Nifty Bank : 51007

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

Nifty Bank index concluded the session on a flat note at 51007 amid elevated volatility owing to RBI’s policy . In the process, PSU Bank index relatively outperformed by gaining 0 . 6 %

Technical Outlook :

* The index staged a strong up move in the initial part of the session . However, index trimmed entire gain as profit booking seen post RBI’s policy outcome . As a result, daily price action resulted into small bear candle carrying higher high -low, Indicating continuation of uptrend amid elevated volatility .

* The formation of higher high -low signifies follow through strength after bouncing from 100 days EMA . Key point to highlight is that, Bank Nifty has maintained the rhythm of not correcting more than 9 % in CY24 . Going ahead, sustainability above 51000 mark would confirm pause in downward momentum that would lead to extended pullback towards 52400 . In the process, Monday’s low of 50200 would continue to act as immediate support .

* PSU bank index is undergoing base formation in the vicinity of 200 days EMA amid oversold condition . Apart from technical oversold conditions, potential of lower interest rates are expected to act as tailwind for banks

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