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Nifty : 25103

Technical Outlook

Week that was…

* Indian equity benchmarks surged for the fourth straight session amid positive global cues. The Nifty settled at 25103, up 100 points. Market breadth was in favor of advances, with an A/D ratio of 2:1, as the broader market outshined. Sectorally, barring realty all sectors closed in green where, PSU Bank, Oil & Gas and Nifty Pvt Bank outperformed.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty opened the week with gap (25003-25160), and traded within the range of 25160-25077 throughout the session. This led to the formation of small red candle, signaling continuation of upward momentum.

* Nifty witnessed Three-week consolidation breakout with a runaway-gap boosted by RBI’s monetary policy embarks above 25100. The resumption of uptrend after shallow correction confirms that the bull market template is still intact. Nifty would open the door for next leg of up move towards 25500 in coming weeks. Volatility along the way if any should be used as a buying opportunity as we do not expect Nifty to breach key support of 24700 in coming week.

* Key thing to highlight is that, the index has staged a strong 16% rally from April lows. Post that, Nifty has been consolidating over past two weeks wherein it corrected 3%. The elongation of rallies followed by shallow retracement is a key ingredient of a structural bull market. Any decline should be used as buying opportunity.

* On the broader market front, outperformance was clearly reflected in the ratio chart of Nifty 500 / Nifty 100 that continued to inch northward. The current rally is backed by improvement in the market breadth as currently 58% stocks of Nifty 500 universe are trading above their long term 200 days SMA compared to a month back reading of 30% that augurs well for durability of ongoing up move.

* Key monitorable which would provide cushion to the ongoing up move:

* a. US and India Inflation data

* b. FII's inflow

* c. Further weakness in US Dollar index and Brent crude oil prices

* d. Bilateral Trade Agreement between India and US

* The index closed above 25000 mark which makes us revise our support base at 24700 as it is 20-day EMA and 61.80% retracement of recent rally (24500-25160).

Nifty Bank : 56839

Technical Outlook

Week that was :

* The Bank Nifty clocked a fresh All time high second day in a row . The index settled at 56 ,839 , up 261 points . The Nifty Pvt Bank index outperformed the benchmark, and closed the day on a positive note at 28 ,120 , up 1 .03 % .

Technical Outlook

* Bank Nifty opened the week with gap (56578 -57049), and traded within the range of 57049 -56792 throughout the session . This led to the formation of small red candle, signaling continuation of upward momentum .

* Bank Nifty extended its rally to hit a fresh lifetime high with a run -away -gap on Monday, claiming the 57 ,000 level for the first -time ever as the Reserve Bank of India's surprise repo rate cut of 50 basis points and CRR cut buoyed the bullish sentiment . Nifty broke out from six weeks consolidation range indicating robust price structure . The implied target of the consolidation rage comes at 58800 . Meanwhile, strong support is placed at 55000 , which marks the 50 % retracement of the recent up -move (53 ,483 –56 ,695 ) . Any, decline from current levels would offer incremental buying opportunities .

* Structurally, the Bank Nifty is witnessing an elongation of rallies followed by shallow retracements, signifying a robust price structure . The recent up -move of 14 % is stronger compared to the previous month’s 9 % rise . Additionally, the declines are becoming shallower, with the recent one being 4.6% versus 5.4% in March 2025. Furthermore, the index broke out of an eight -month falling trendline and surpassed its lifetime high, highlighting continued strength .

* The PSU Bank index outperformed the benchmark and closed on a positive note . The index broke out from an eleven -month falling trendline on 19th May and, since then, has been forming a higher -high -low structure, indicating strong upside momentum . While the Bank Nifty is trading at all -time high, the PSU Bank index is still trading ~12 % below its all -time high, presenting a compelling case for a catch -up move . Meanwhile, immediate support on the downside is placed at 6,700, which is the 38.20% retracement of the rally from 7 th April 2025 to 9 th June 2025

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