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Nifty

Nifty continues to exhibit strong underlying momentum; however, signs of near-term exhaustion are becoming increasingly visible. The index approached its key resistance zone around 25475 but witnessed profit booking near the higher levels. The 5 DEMA has now moved up to 24870, while 25000 emerges as a crucial psychological and pivotal support for today's expiry session. Momentum indicators also warrant caution, with daily RSI entering the overbought zone near 80 and ADX stretching to 48, indicating a strong but increasingly extended trend. A sustained hold above 25000 could help the index consolidate and make another attempt towards the 25400–25475 resistance band. Conversely, a decisive break below 25000 may invite sharper profit booking towards 24870. The key positive remains the sharp cooling in Brent crude, which has slipped below $98 and is now hovering around the $92 mark. A sustained breakdown below $92 could further improve sentiment and provide an additional tailwind to domestic equities. Traders should avoid chasing prices at elevated levels and maintain strict trailing stop-losses. Fresh directional positions should preferably be considered around the 25000 support or after a decisive breakout above the immediate resistance zone. Given the expiry-day volatility and stretched momentum readings, disciplined position sizing and capital protection remain paramount.

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