IGI Logo

Morning Market Outlook

* The market is expected to open on a positive note due to several factors. Global IT giant Nvidia reported impressive quarterly results and strong earnings guidance, which is boosting sentiment.

* Additionally, the US Dollar Index has fallen to a two-month low below 106, and oil prices have dropped to a three-month low below $73 per barrel, fueled by hopes of peace talks between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict

* While the US market ended with mixed results yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index saw a slight gain. However, US consumer sentiment hit a four-year low, and the decline in US home sales has raised expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve as soon as July

* Positive movement is anticipated for pharma stocks, following USFDA approvals for several major players. Stocks like HPCL, BPCL, and IOC could benefit from the falling oil prices. Tech stocks will also be in focus after Nvidia's strong quarterly results.

NIFTY (CMP : 22547)

Nifty immediate support is at 22400 then 22250 zones while resistance at 22700 then 22800 zones. Now till it holds below 22800 zones, weakness could be seen towards 22400 then 22250 zones whereas hurdles are placed at 22700 then 22800 zones.

BANK NIFTY (CMP : 48608)

Bank Nifty support is at 48250 then 48000 zones while resistance at 48750 then 49000 zones. Now till it holds below 48750 zones some weakness could be seen towards 48250 then 48000 zones while on the upside hurdle is seen at 48750 then 49000 levels.

Derivative Outlook

* Nifty February future closed at 22,582.15 with a premium of 34.60 point v/s 59.30 point premium in the last session.

* Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) increased from 0.71 to 0.77 level.

* India VIX decreased by 5.04% to 13.72 level.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 22500 then 23000 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 22600 then 22500 strike. Call writing is seen at 22700 then 22650 strike while Put writing is seen at 22600 then 22500 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 22000 to 23000 zones while an immediate range between 22400 to 22800 levels

* Option Buying : Buy weekly Nifty 22600 Put if it holds below 22800 zones. Buy Bank Nifty 48600 Put till it holds below 48750 zones.

* Option Strategy : Nifty weekly Bear Put Spread (Buy 22600 PE and Sell 22400 PE) at net premium cost of 50-55 points. Bank Nifty Bear Put Spread (Buy 48600 PE and Sell 48300 PE) at net premium cost of 40-50 points.

* Option Writing : Sell weekly Nifty 22300 PE and 23700 CE with strict double SL. Sell Bank Nifty 47900 PE and 49100 CE with strict double SL.

Fundamental Outlook

Global Market Summary:

* US markets ended mixed, as talks of fresh tariff impacted sentiments.

* President Trump said he would soon enact a 25% tariff on goods from European Union. He also said that tariffs on Mexico & Canada would go into affect on Apr 2, nearly a month later than the initial Mar. 4 deadline.

* At Close, Dow was down 0.4%, S&P 500 flat +0.02% while the NASDAQ gained 0.26%

* European markets ended on a positive note with gains of 0.7%-1.7%.

* Dow Futures is up 135 points (+0.3%)

* Most Asian markets are trading Mixed.

* Global Cues: Muted

Indian Market Summary:

* Indian market ended flat, amidst mixed global cues. Concerns over U.S. trade policies weighed on global markets. Benchmark index Nifty ended 6 points lower at 22,548 level (-0.03%)

* Selling continued in the Broader market with Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap indices down between 0.4-0.6% each. FIIs: -Rs3529 crore DIIs: +Rs3031 crore.

* Currently GIFT Nifty is currently trading marginal positive up 27 points.

* Domestic Cues: Muted

News and Impact :

Banks, NBFCs: RBI has reduced the risk weight requirement for banks on consumer microfinance loans by 25 percentage points, bringing down to 100%

Impact: Positive for Bandhan Bank, IndusInd, SFB, MFIs

Tata Power: The company has signed an MoU with the Assam government to develop and tie up up to 5,000 MW of renewable and clean energy with Rs 30,000 crore investment at Advantage Assam 2.0.

Impact: Positive

Fundamental Actionable Idea

Interglobe Aviation: CMP Rs4427

* IndiGo plans to ramp up its fleet with three more Boeing 787-9 planes on a damp lease from Norse Atlantic Airways, targeting expansion to Europe

* The three additional B787s will be added to its fleet in the second half of 2025, serving long-haul routes out of India. The initial agreement signed between the two airlines is for six months but is extendable to up to 18 months.

* Management has also taken several preemptive measures to increase its global brand awareness as it expects to capture a bigger share of growth in the international market over the coming years.

View: Positive

HDFC AMC: CMP Rs 3765, TP 4800, 27% Upside, Buy

* The company hosted an analyst meet, focusing on macro trends and the company’s initiatives to maintain its top position and profitability.

* HDFCAMC’s growth is expected to be driven by enhancing its core capabilities –investment management, risk management, and product management–complemented by investments in its sales network relationship, service capabilities, and content.

* The company’s priority is to drive the growth of the systematic book by expanding channel presence, marketing passives, and enhancing digital platforms.

* In the fast-growing alternates space, the company has introduced new schemes and formed a dedicated team for private credit.

* HDFCAMC has been one of the most profitable AMCs with a largely consistent opex trajectory, despite witnessing significant growth in the last few years with respect to AUM, capabilities, and talent.

View: Buy

Quant Intraday Sell Ideas

What is this?

Based on technical indicators this strategy gives 2 stocks that have a high likelihood to fall during the day (from open to close). This is an intraday Sell strategy which can provide a good cushioning during a black swan event.

What are the rules?

* Stock names will be given at market open (9:15 am)

* Recommended time to entry: between 9:15 to 9:30 am.

* Entry: We short 2 stocks daily (intraday)

* Exit: we will exit at 3:15 as this is an intraday call

* SL: is placed at 1% of the open.

* Book profit: At 1% fall since open.

* In special situations the book profit might be delayed if the stock is in free fall.

For More Research Reports : Click Here 

For More Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd Disclaimer
http://www.motilaloswal.com/MOSLdisclaimer/disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number is INH000000412