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Nifty

Nifty ended the February series on a weak note, declining nearly 1%, yet crucially managed to hold above the key support zone of 25400. The series was marked by sharp volatility, with swings between 26340 on the upside and 24570 on the downside, before settling near the midpoint of the range around 25400. Rollover data reflected cautious sentiment in the broader market, with Nifty rollover at a subdued 56.5%, below normal averages, indicating limited index-level conviction. In contrast, Bank Nifty rollover remained strong at 63.4%, well above its recent averages, highlighting relatively aggressive positioning in banking stocks. Technically, the index successfully defended its major demand area near 25400 last week, though repeated attempts to cross the 25850 resistance failed. The formation of a Bullish Engulfing pattern on the daily chart, supported by follow-through buying, reinforces 25400 as a strong base. On the downside, a decisive break below this level could trigger further weakness toward 25040. On the upside, the confluence of moving averages near 25760 acts as an immediate hurdle, followed by resistances at 25,850 and 26,000. The broader bullish structure remains intact as long as Nifty holds above 25400, with fresh aggressive longs advisable only on a decisive breakout above 25750, potentially opening the path toward the 26000–26400 zone.

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