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Nifty

Nifty commenced the week on a tepid note as it formed yet another ‘Doji’ candlestick formation near its life high zone. Occurrence of such narrow-ranged bodies post the breakout moves display lack of conviction amongst traders. But the breakout momentum is expected to remain intact & push the index towards 22500 hurdle zone until the index continues to trend higher above its 20 DEMA level which is now placed above 22060. Options data at the beginning of the series indicates a narrow range of 22500-22200 as key bounds while highest OI cluster for both Puts & Calls is placed at 22000 which acts as a make-or-break zone for ongoing bullish momentum. Since the India VIX (Volatility /Fear Index) still remains confined within 16 level (its 200 WEMA level) & 14.70 (its 5 WEMA); a consolidation breakout would be an early sign for traders deploy confident leverage positions on either side. Until then the outlook remains neutral to cautious as sector rotational move would attract further rise in volatility. While momentum stop for the short term may be placed below 21990.

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