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Nifty

Nifty closed the June series on a high, decisively surpassing the key 25555 pivot zone. After consolidating for six weeks, the index now appears to have confirmed a breakout on its weekly scale. A notable uptick in the daily ADX, approaching the 25-mark, suggests rising directional strength. A sustained move above this level could fuel further bullish momentum. Options data indicates a solid base at 25000 at the start of the July series, with room on the upside potentially extending to 26,500. On the absolute price scale, Nifty continues to trade above its 5-week EMA support at 25080. As long as this level holds on a closing basis, momentum is likely to persist. Looking ahead, minor hurdles are expected in the 25630–25700 zone, with a move towards 26000 likely in the first half of the July series. Momentum indicators and a bullish crossover in short-term moving averages further support the ongoing uptrend. On the macro front, 15% correction in Brent crude, now below $67/barrel, are boosting sentiment. A continued slide towards $64 and eventually $44 in the coming months could act as an additional tailwind. Strategy wise we expect to maintain momentum long positions as long as Nifty holds above 25,080 on a weekly closing basis. Investors can continue to accumulate on dips, with an eventual target of 27,255, in line with the flag pattern breakout projection.

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