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Nifty : 22967

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Equity benchmarks zoomed 370 points or 1.65% and clocked a new All Time High of 22993 to settle the weekly expiry session at 22968. Sectorally, barring pharma, all other indices ended in green led by financials, auto, IT

Technical Outlook

*  In line with our view, Nifty approached milestone of 22800 and recorded new highs. The index started the weekly expiry session on a positive note and inched northward as the day progressed, since intraday dips were short lived. As a result, daily price action formed a sizable bull candle carrying higher high-low, indicating acceleration of upward momentum on the breach of March high of 22794. Meanwhile, Nifty midcap index endured with its record setting spree over fifth consecutive session

*  Going ahead, the formation of higher peak and trough supported by across sector participation makes us confident to reiterate our positive stance and expect Nifty to head toward our earmarked target of 23400 in coming weeks. Key point to highlight is that, index has entirely retraced past nine weeks consolidation (22800- 21700) in just two weeks. The faster pace of retracement exhibits robust price structure that bodes well for extension of ongoing up move. In the process, bouts of volatility would prevail ahead of General election outcome coupled with progression of Q4 earning season. Our positive stance is based on following observations:

A) Nifty has historically corrected 6% during polling phase in past four elections and three times hit new highs around election outcome. In current scenario , index staged a rebound after correcting 4.5% from life highs

B) Over 70% of Nifty constituents indicate further upsides at current juncture. Banking, capital goods, Oil & Gas, Power, Auto and FMCG heavyweights are indicating bullish undertone 

C) Major global indices are at life highs. Although in the short term our markets are ignoring those cues, once General election related anxiety settles down, strong global setups would act as tailwind for further market direction 

*  Structurally, formation of higher peak and trough makes us confident to revise support base upward at 22400 as it is confluence of 20 days EMA coincided with 50% retracement of current up move (21821-22994) and current week’s low of 22404

Nifty Bank: 48768

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

The Nifty Bank index posted strong rally on Thursday led by heavyweight private banks . Index concluded session at 48768 , up 986 points or 2 %

Technical Outlook

 *  The Bank Nifty index started the session on positive note in follow through to Wednesdays recovery as higher RBI dividend lifted investor sentiments on fiscal front . Index continued to rally through the session resulting in a strong bull candle with higher high -low indicting continuation of positive stance and Nifty heading towards higher band of consolidation at 50000 mark in the short term . Buying dips strategy has fructified over past few sessions . Meanwhile 47500 remains an immediate support for index 

*  Since late Jan’24 low of 44633 , Index is following a well channeled up move forming higher bottoms in the vicinity of rising 100 -day ema (47050 ) . Last week index respected this price behaviour and staged recovery from 47000 mark making it a strong support 

*  Structurally, current decline from life highs is a healthy retracement and therefore does not alter positional bullish stance . We therefore expect that current decline would result into a higher base formation around 47000 followed by resumption of rally towards highs

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