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Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.26% to settle at 1,22,727 per 10 grams as investors reassessed mixed U.S. labor data and moderated expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed a robust increase of 119,000 jobs in September 2025, beating market forecasts, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, signaling a still-resilient but softening labor market. Meanwhile, the prolonged U.S. government shutdown delayed the release of these figures, adding uncertainty to market sentiment. On the physical demand front, Swiss gold exports dropped by 11% in October, led by a sharp 93% plunge in shipments to China to just 2.1 tons as high prices curbed consumer appetite. Exports to the U.K. also fell 69% to 8.7 tons, while Thailand saw a sharp rise to 13.9 tons. Indian buying remained subdued with domestic dealers offering discounts up to $43 per ounce— their widest in five months—amid elevated local prices. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand rose 3% year-on-year in the third quarter to a record 1,313 metric tons, driven by 17% higher investment demand and a 134% surge in gold-backed ETF inflows, offsetting weak jewellery demand. Technically, gold futures face fresh selling pressure with open interest up 1.51% at 10,392. Support is seen near 1,21,900, below which prices may test 1,21,070, while resistance is expected at 1,23,660 and 1,24,590 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 121070-124590.

* Gold dropped as investors digested mixed US labor data and fading expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.

* US nonfarm payrolls rose by 119K in September 2025, rebounding from a revised 4K decline in August and beating market forecasts of 50K.

* The US unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September 2025 from 4.3% in August, exceeding market expectations of 4.3%

Silver

Silver prices fell 0.62% to 1,54,151 per kg as the market digested the U.S. Federal Reserve’s October minutes, which highlighted a split among policymakers on the pace and timing of rate cuts, dampening the recent metals rally and strengthening the dollar. The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September 2025, beating expectations, and wage growth slightly outpaced forecasts at 3.8%. However, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, preserving safe-haven demand amid enduring macro and geopolitical uncertainties. Physical fundamentals remained supportive for silver, with strong technical momentum after last month’s break above $52 per ounce and continued steady Asian buying. In India, the wedding season spurred physical demand, while possible U.S. tariffs added to safe-haven appeal. London vaults saw silver inventories rise to 26,255 metric tons (up 6.8% month-on-month), alleviating a recent liquidity crunch as inflows from the U.S. and China eased borrowing rates. Meanwhile, Comex warehouse stocks declined by 1,568 tons since early October, though inventories remain elevated year-on-year due to tariff-driven uncertainty. Exchange-traded product holdings have climbed roughly 18% year-to-date, reflecting persistent investor anxiety over stagflation, Fed policy, and global unrest. Technically, silver is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 1.71% to 12,394 contracts and prices down by 956. Support sits at 1,52,665, with further downside possible to 1,51,180, while resistance is likely at 1,56,120 and a break may target 1,58,090.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 151180-158090.

* Silver dropped as markets digested the Fed’s October minutes which revealed a divided committee.

* The US economy added 119,000 jobs in September, rebounding from a downwardly revised decline of 4,000 in August and surpassing forecasts of 50,000.

* Many officials still expect cuts at some point but a large group signalled that a December move is not certain.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled slightly higher by 0.1% at 5,263, buoyed by a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. stockpiles and a broader risk-on rally in asset markets. The U.S. saw crude inventories fall by 3.426 million barrels in the week ending November 14—significantly larger than the market's expected 0.6-million-barrel decrease—while Cushing, Oklahoma, hub stocks dropped by 698,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate stocks, on the other hand, posted smaller-than-expected declines, indicating ongoing consumer demand.? Geopolitically, the U.S. renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and drafted a peace framework, which has implications for supply expectations as more Russian oil could potentially hit the market. Meanwhile, sanctions on oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil , slated to take effect imminently, have already disrupted oil trade flows, especially to India, adding another layer of volatility. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects record-high oil output this year at 13.59 million bpd, with only a marginal decline expected in 2026. Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC+ forecast supply growth outpacing demand through 2026, suggesting a deepening surplus in global balances.? Technically, crude oil is experiencing short covering, as open interest fell 5.78% to 15,129 contracts with prices up 5. Key support lies at 5,206, with a further drop possibly testing 5,149, while resistance is observed at 5,331, above which prices could target 5,399.?

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5149-5399.

* Crude oil prices edged up boosted by a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles.

* However, reports indicated the U.S. was renewing its push to end the Russia-Ukraine war and has drafted a framework for it.

* Crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 424.2 million in the week ended November 14, the Energy Information Administration said.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices fell by 0.79% to 399.6 per mmBtu, pressured by near-record U.S. output and robust storage levels, even with strong demand and record flows to LNG export plants. The Lower 48 states’ average gas production in November hit 109.1 bcfd—a new monthly high—thanks to continued growth from October's already record pace, enabling energy companies to maintain stockpiles about 4% above seasonal norms. The latest injection saw 45 billion cubic feet added to storage in the week ending November 7, pushing total stocks to 3,960 bcf, only 0.2% below last year's levels and 4.5% above the five-year average.? Meteorologists project warmer-than-normal weather through November 26 before turning colder from November 28 to December 5, which should drive higher heating demand and potentially lift prices as winter approaches. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts both output and domestic consumption to reach fresh records in 2025, with LNG exports also expected to climb substantially, reaching 14.7 bcfd next year.? Despite the supportive fundamentals, trading action was dominated by long liquidation, with open interest plunging 29.44% to 7,807 contracts and prices slipping by 3.2. Technically, natural gas is finding support at 393.7, below which prices may test 387.8. Resistance is expected at 407.2, with a move above this level potentially initiating a test of 414.8.?

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 387.8-414.8.

* Natural gas slid on near-record output and ample amounts of gas in storage.

* However, near-historic flows to LNG export plants and forecasts for colder weather limited downside.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.1 bcfd so far in November, up from 107.3 bcfd in October

Copper

Copper prices slipped by 0.53% to 996.8 per kg amid lingering caution in global markets, as uncertainty around the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next rate move continues to cap risk appetite. Nonetheless, the downside was limited after Chile's state copper commission (Cochilco) raised its 2025 and 2026 average copper price forecasts to record highs of $4.45 and $4.55/lb, citing production constraints and ongoing supply concerns in key mining regions.? China’s copper cathode imports in October fell sharply, declining 22.1% year-on-year and 15.65% from September, highlighting persistent weakness in the world’s largest metals consumer. The country’s refined copper output dipped 4.9% month-on-month in October, although annual growth for the month reached 8.9%. On the supply side, disruptions at mines globally—including the Grasberg mine in Indonesia—have kept the market vigilant. Despite the decline in imports and output, LME copper stocks climbed to 104,500 tons, the highest since early October, and the cash contract is currently trading at a discount to the three-month forward, signaling no imminent shortage.? The International Copper Study Group forecasts a refined copper market surplus of 178,000 tonnes in 2025, but a shift to a 150,000 tonne deficit in 2026, supported by steady demand growth and moderate supply expansion. On the technical front, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 3.53% to 5,626 contracts. Copper finds support at 993.8, with further weakness possibly testing 990.6, while resistance is expected at 1,002.6 and 1,008.2.?

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 990.6-1008.2.

* Copper dropped amid caution in global markets and uncertainty over whether Fed will cut rates in December.

* However downside were capped as Chile's state copper commission Cochilco lifted its price outlook to record levels.

* China, imported 279,944 tons of copper cathodes in October, down 22.10% year-on-year and 15.65% on a monthly basis.

Zinc

Zinc prices climbed by 0.96% to 304.85 per kg as market fundamentals improved, supported by a shrinking global supply surplus and persistently tight London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories. The latest data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) indicated the global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August. Overall, the refined zinc market posted a surplus of 120,000 tons for the first nine months of 2025, which is slightly higher year-on-year, reflecting a shifting balance.? LME zinc stocks remain near multi-year lows at 35,875 tons, helping push spot premiums above futures and driving backwardation in contracts. Meanwhile, China's domestic smelters turned to overseas markets, with exports surging 243.8% in October compared to September, offsetting depressed local demand due to continued property sector weakness. Chinese zinc production hit an all-time high in October, up 4% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year, influenced by maintenance resumptions and expansions in several provinces.? Global refined zinc output is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million metric tons in 2025, but inventories outside China remain very tight, supporting prices. Technically, the zinc market is seeing fresh buying interest, evidenced by a 6.15% rise in open interest to 2,606 contracts and a price gain of 2.9. Support for zinc is found at 302.7, with a further drop possibly testing 300.4, while resistance is expected at 306.9 and 308.8.?

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 300.4-308.8.

* Zinc gains as the global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August.

* China's zinc exports surged in October as domestic smelters turned to overseas markets amid a dramatic squeeze on the LME.

* Limited stockpiles pushed the spot zinc premium over the three-month zinc futures to over $300 a ton.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged up by 0.19% to 265.1 per kg, buoyed by expectations of improved demand and constrained output in China, the world's dominant producer and consumer. The latest data from the International Aluminium Institute showed global primary aluminium output in October reached 6.294 million tonnes, a rise of 0.6% year-on-year, while Japanese port stocks dropped 3.6% from the previous month, reflecting inventory drawdowns.? Production growth in China remains limited as many smelters approach imposed capacity ceilings and face ongoing pressure from government policies to prevent overcapacity. Despite a strong dollar and soft demand signals from China’s property sector, global supply worries—driven by technical issues at key refineries in Iceland and Australia—helped keep downside risks contained. Notably, Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery, and Century Aluminium curtailed output by two-thirds at its Iceland plant, both contributing to supply tightening. Forecasts remain mixed: Goldman Sachs projects LME aluminium prices will retreat to $2,350/t in Q4 2026, betting on surplus from slowing demand and cost deflation, while ANZ upgraded its short-term target to $2,900/t on prospects of firmer manufacturing and auto sector demand. Technically, the market saw short covering, with open interest dropping 8.46% to 1,807 as prices ticked up by 0.5. Support is evident at 264 with a potential test of 262.8; resistance is at 266.6 and a breakout may push levels to 268.?

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 262.8-268.

* Aluminium gains helped by prospects of improved demand and limited output growth in China.

* However, a strong dollar and concern about demand in China weighed on the market.

* Global aluminium output rises 0.6% year on year in October – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 1.07% to 14,384 per quintal amid increased acreage driven by favorable rains in the current sowing season, which could weigh on future supplies. However, downside was limited as yields in major producing states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka were adversely impacted by continuous rains, causing disease outbreaks in regions such as Erode. Excessive humidity has complicated preservation efforts, adding to supply concerns. Heavy rainfall in areas like Nanded caused damage to approximately 15% of turmeric crop area, reinforcing a cautious supply outlook.? Farmers' stocks in Warangal are almost depleted, with no fresh arrivals recently, while premium prices for fresh turmeric crops at the Duggirala market reflect strong buyer demand and superior quality. Market activity also remained robust, with steady arrivals and daily trade volumes between 1,000 and 1,200 bags. Early estimates suggest turmeric acreage may increase by 15-20% this season due to better returns compared to other crops. Additionally, the Himachal Pradesh government’s procurement drive to promote natural farming is adding to market dynamics.? On the export front, turmeric shipments rose 3.31% to 80,156.56 tonnes during April-August 2025, with August exports up by over 7% year-on-year and 13.7% month-on-month, indicating healthy external demand.? Technically, the turmeric market is seeing long liquidation as open interest declined 1.59% to 10,240 contracts, while prices slipped 156. Support is found at 14,120, with a potential test of 13,854, and resistance lies at 14,800, with upward momentum possibly challenging 15,214.?

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13854-15214.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* Turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted, with no fresh arrivals over the past two days.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14734.6 Rupees dropped by -0.63 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined slightly by 0.16% to 21,445 per quintal, pressured by comfortable supplies and muted export demand amid adequate existing stocks. However, the downside was limited due to weather disruptions and delayed sowing in key production areas. Uneven rainfall has slowed sowing in Gujarat, one of the major cumin-producing states, leading to lower arrivals at markets like Unjha, where premium-quality cumin is fetching higher prices. Logistical and climatic challenges in India and the Middle East have tightened supply, supporting price stability despite softness in export inquiries.? Export demand from Gulf countries and China has shown slight improvement but remains price-sensitive. Current export volumes show a 17.02% year-on-year decline during April-August 2025, with a modest 3.24% rise in August compared to the previous year but a 6% drop from July, reflecting fluctuating market sentiment. India’s overall cumin production is expected to be slightly lower this season at around 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.1 crore bags last year, with Gujarat and Rajasthan being the primary contributors. Global production remains impacted by adverse weather in other producing countries like China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan.? Technically, Jeera is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest down 1.19% to 3,225 contracts and prices slipping 35. Support is witnessed at 21,250, with a potential test of 21,040, while resistance is positioned at 21,770, with a breakout possibly targeting 22,080.?

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21040-22080.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* Farmers are struggling to start sowing due to uneven rainfall.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21092.95 Rupees gained by 0.13 percent.

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