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Gold

Gold settled 1.23% higher at Rs. 1,40,186 per 10 grams, supported by a decline in crude oil prices that eased inflation concerns, while investors focused on the upcoming US midterm elections and their potential implications for fiscal policy. However, the upside remained limited as persistent inflationary pressures strengthened expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. US inflation accelerated in September, while three Fed officials supported additional rate increases, reinforcing market expectations of a 75% probability of a December rate hike. In Europe, inflation is also expected to remain elevated, potentially returning to the ECB's 2% target only in 2028. Physical gold demand across key Asian markets remained subdued, with Indian buyers postponing purchases amid expectations of lower prices and Chinese demand remaining muted. Indian gold premiums declined to $7 per ounce from $9 previously, while Chinese premiums narrowed to $0-$9 per ounce. Meanwhile, China's net gold imports through Hong Kong increased 28% month-on-month to 74.987 tonnes in September, the highest in five months, while its central bank extended gold purchases for a 23rd consecutive month. Gold holdings in London vaults rose 1.96% month-on-month to 9,821 tonnes at the end of September. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing sustained central bank diversification as a key structural support, although it warned that aggressive Fed tightening could trigger a correction towards $4,070 before a recovery. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 1.38% to 16,142 contracts while prices advanced by Rs. 1,701. Gold is currently finding support at Rs. 1,38,640, followed by Rs. 1,37,090, while resistance is placed at Rs. 1,41,130. A sustained move above this resistance could extend the recovery towards Rs. 1,42,070, whereas a break below immediate support may invite further selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 137090-142070.

• Gold prices rebounded as a drop in oil prices eased some inflation concerns, while investors turned their focus to US midterm elections.

• US inflation accelerated in September, supporting expectations of an interest rate increase from the Fed in December.

• In the week to 27 Oct, Gold speculative net long fell by 1,283 to +1,07,404 contracts: speculators sold 125 longs and added 1,158 shorts.

• Physical gold demand in key Asian markets remained subdued last week, with Indian buyers delaying purchases in anticipation of a further decline in prices

Silver

Silver settled 2.59% higher at Rs. 1,83,779 per kg, supported by a weaker US dollar and declining crude oil prices following diplomatic discussions between Iranian and Qatari officials aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran. However, gains remained capped as markets continued to price in a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December, following last week's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. HSBC expects the silver market deficit to narrow sharply from 140 million ounces in 2025 to 5 million ounces in 2026 and widen modestly to 12 million ounces in 2027, citing rising mine supply, scrap recovery and recycling alongside weaker industrial and jewellery demand. The bank projected silver at $70 per ounce by end-2026 and $65 in 2027. Meanwhile, the Silver Institute and Metals Focus expect the market to record its sixth consecutive annual structural deficit, with cumulative stock withdrawals reaching 762 million ounces since 2021. The global silver deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite a 2% decline in total demand, as industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four-year low while coin and bar demand is expected to increase 18%. London's silver vault holdings increased 1.95% month-on-month to 28,985 tonnes at the end of September, valued at $56.6 billion. Meanwhile, analysts expect silver to average $66.75 per ounce in 2027, reflecting a recovery from current levels but remaining below the 2026 forecast of $70.30. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 6.47% to 16,933 contracts while prices advanced by Rs. 4,647. Silver is currently finding support at Rs. 1,81,100, followed by Rs. 1,78,420, while resistance is placed at Rs. 1,85,570. A sustained move above this resistance could extend the recovery towards Rs. 1,87,360, whereas a break below immediate support may revive selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 178420-187360.

• Silver rose as dollar eased and oil prices fell after talks between Iranian and Qatari officials.

• HSBC expects silver’s market deficit to shrink from 140 million ounces in 2025 to 5 million ounces this year, and to widen only to 12 million ounces in 2027.

• In the week to 27 Oct, Silver speculative net long fell by 844 to +2,902 contracts: speculators added 49 longs and added 893 shorts.

• Traders are pricing in about a 75% chance of a rate hike in December, according to the CME's Fed Watch Tool.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled sharply lower by 8.7% at Rs. 9,072 per barrel, as diplomatic efforts between Iranian and Qatari officials to secure an agreement to end the Middle East conflict raised hopes of easing supply disruptions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi described the discussions as ongoing and progressing, although attacks on oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz continued to threaten global energy supplies and shipping costs. Despite the recent decline, supply concerns remained elevated, with Goldman Sachs raising its December Brent forecast to $105 per barrel from $90 and its 2027 average forecast to $88, citing persistent geopolitical risks. Morgan Stanley and ANZ also raised their year-end Brent projections to $105. Meanwhile, OPEC+ maintained its December production targets, while OPEC revised down its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million bpd earlier this year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision. However, the group expects demand to recover in 2027 as depleted inventories are replenished. US crude inventories declined by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels, against market expectations for a marginal increase, while Cushing stocks fell by 624,000 barrels. Distillate inventories declined by 1.5 million barrels, whereas gasoline stocks increased by 3.9 million barrels, indicating mixed trends in refined product demand. Supply disruptions also persisted in Libya following the shutdown of a major crude pipeline, while the IEA reported Russian crude exports rising to 5.3 million bpd in September despite continued refining disruptions. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined sharply by 29.48% to 11,379 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs. 865. Crude oil is currently finding support at Rs. 8,870, followed by Rs. 8,670, while resistance is placed at Rs. 9,445. A sustained move above this resistance could trigger a recovery towards Rs. 9,815, whereas a break below immediate support may extend the bearish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 8670-9815.

• Crude oil prices fell as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks aimed at securing a deal to end the war.

• IRNA: Iran's supreme leader has authorized the government to enter into negotiations.

• Goldman Sachs raises Brent crude forecast to $105 for December, sees oil at $88 in 2027 amid Iran war risks

• Crude oil speculative net long fell by 2,136 to +99,771 contracts: speculators sold 5,587 longs and covered 3,451 shorts.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 1.59% lower at Rs. 272.70 per mmBtu, as persistently mild weather forecasts and recovering domestic production weighed on prices, outweighing support from strong LNG exports and declining storage inventories. Meteorologists expect temperatures across much of the US to remain above normal during the first half of November, potentially limiting heating demand. Meanwhile, Lower 48 natural gas production recovered to an average of 113.3 bcfd over the past week, improving domestic supply availability. Average feedgas flows to nine major US LNG export terminals increased to 18.5 bcfd in October from 17.9 bcfd in September. US natural gas inventories increased by 80 bcf in the week ended October 23, exceeding market expectations for a 75 bcf injection, taking total stocks to 3.724 trillion cubic feet. Inventories remained 3.8% below year-ago levels but 1% above the five-year average. Speculative positioning also weakened, with net short positions increasing by 48,615 contracts to 205,464, reflecting fresh bearish sentiment among traders. The EIA projected US dry gas production to rise to 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to increase to 92.4 bcfd and 93.8 bcfd, respectively. LNG exports are also forecast to reach 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. However, expectations of stronger supply growth have raised concerns about a comfortable domestic market. Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 NYMEX natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per mmBtu from $3.50, citing rising Permian production and supply growth exceeding demand growth by more than 2 bcfd. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, as open interest increased by 2.42% to 57,905 contracts while prices declined by Rs. 4.40. Natural gas is currently finding support at Rs. 268.50, followed by Rs. 264.00, while resistance is placed at Rs. 280.50. A sustained move above this resistance could trigger a recovery towards Rs. 288.00, whereas a break below immediate support may extend the downside momentum.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 264.00-288.00.

• Natural gas prices dropped as persistently mild weather and a recovery in domestic production weighed on the market.

• EIA reported a larger-than-expected increase in inventories, bringing total stocks to roughly 1% above the five-year average.

• Natural gas speculative net short deepened by 48,615 to −2,05,464 contracts: speculators sold 3,483 longs and added 45,132 shorts.

• Meteorologists forecast that temperatures across much of the country would remain mostly warmer than normal during the first half of November.

Copper

Copper settled 1.34% higher at Rs. 1,391.95 per kg, supported by supply concerns and easing crude oil prices following a third consecutive day of diplomatic talks aimed at securing an agreement to end the US-Israeli war on Iran. Supply-side concerns intensified after Chile's copper commission, Cochilco, sharply reduced its 2026 production forecast for the world's largest copper-producing country, projecting an 8.4% decline to 4.94 million tonnes compared with its earlier estimate of 5.27 million tonnes. The commission also lowered its expected recovery for 2027 to 3%, while raising its average copper price forecasts to $6.18 per pound for 2026 and $5.95 for 2027. In China, tight physical availability pushed the Yangshan copper import premium to $200 per tonne, near its highest level in more than a decade, while inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined over 75% in six months. China's copper imports increased 20.7% month-on-month to 461,000 tonnes in September. However, the broader refined copper market remained in surplus, with the ICSG reporting a surplus of 132,000 tonnes in August compared with a deficit of 45,000 tonnes in July. The global refined copper surplus is projected to widen from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by rising mine and refined production. Meanwhile, Chilean production disruptions continued, with Codelco's July output declining 5% year-on-year to 112,800 tonnes and Escondida production falling 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 5.03% to 6,529 contracts while prices advanced by Rs. 18.35. Copper is currently finding support at Rs. 1,382, followed by Rs. 1,371.50, while resistance is placed at Rs. 1,398. A sustained move above this resistance could extend the recovery towards Rs. 1,403.50, whereas a break below immediate support may invite renewed selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1371.50-1403.50.

• Copper recouped losses on supply concerns and lower oil prices.

• Chile's copper commission Cochilco sharply lowered its 2026 output forecast from the world's largest copper producer.

• In China, tight supply has the closely watched Yanghshan premium climb to $200 a ton, close to its highest level in over a decade.

Zinc

Zinc settled 3.02% higher at Rs. 418.05 per kg, supported by improving Chinese manufacturing activity, concerns over mine supply disruptions and tightening availability in international markets. China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansion territory at 52.0 in October, marking the eleventh consecutive month above the 50-point threshold, although it eased slightly from 52.1 in September. Supply-side concerns intensified as declining mine output pushed treatment charges to record lows, forcing smelters to consider production cutbacks. The LME cash zinc premium over the three-month contract surged to $106 per tonne from $45 last week, highlighting immediate physical supply tightness. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored zinc inventories declined 1.6% from the previous Friday. China's refined zinc production fell 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September, while uncertainty surrounding the future of Nyrstar's loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands added to supply concerns. However, expectations of recovering Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could limit further gains. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market shifted to a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in August from a surplus of 27,500 tonnes in July, although the market recorded a surplus of 96,000 tonnes during the first eight months of the year. The ILZSG expects the global refined zinc market to move into a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027 from an estimated deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026, as refined production increases 2% to 14.21 million tonnes. Global zinc demand is projected to rise 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes in 2027, supported by stronger consumption in Europe, India and the US. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 3.56% to 2,003 contracts while prices advanced by Rs. 12.25. Zinc is currently finding support at Rs. 410, followed by Rs. 402, while resistance is placed at Rs. 422.50. A sustained move above this resistance could extend the recovery towards Rs. 426.50, whereas a break below immediate support may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 402.00-426.50.

• Zinc gained as China’s manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory in October.

• Support also seen amid worries about mine supply and shortages outside China.

• Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.6% from last Friday, the exchange said.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.45% higher at Rs. 331.30 per kg, supported by declining inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses, which fell 10.3% from the previous Friday to 212,858 tonnes. However, gains remained limited by a stronger US dollar and persistent concerns over a potential global surplus in 2027. Supply conditions showed signs of improvement as Emirates Global Aluminium restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, with full production expected by the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, China's primary aluminium production remained strong, reaching 11.84 million tonnes in the third quarter, up 2.2% year-on-year, while September output increased 3.1% to 3.91 million tonnes. Production during the first nine months rose 3.8% to 35.03 million tonnes, reflecting sustained high operating rates despite the longstanding 45-million-tonne annual capacity ceiling. Expectations of additional supply from Indonesia and recovering Gulf smelter operations further weighed on the outlook, with Indonesian aluminium exports exceeding 150,000 tonnes in August. Japan's aluminium buyers also agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, indicating easing supply tightness. The International Aluminium Institute reported global primary aluminium production of 6.014 million tonnes in September, compared with 6.10 million tonnes a year earlier, while China's estimated output stood at 3.75 million tonnes. Despite recent production disruptions in the Gulf region, improving supply availability and expectations of a potential surplus exceeding 1 million tonnes in 2027 remain major concerns for the market. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 3.84% to 4,306 contracts while prices advanced by Rs. 1.50. Aluminium is currently finding support at Rs. 329, followed by Rs. 326.50, while resistance is placed at Rs. 332.50. A sustained move above this resistance could extend the recovery towards Rs. 334, whereas a break below immediate support may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 326.50-334.00.

• Aluminium gained as inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 10.3% from last Friday

• However upside was capped amid stronger dollar, and persistent concerns over a CY27 global surplus.

• EGA has restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.85% lower at Rs. 26,668 per quintal, witnessing profit booking after a recent rally driven by tight pipeline supplies and expectations of lower acreage for the upcoming season. Overseas inquiries from Bangladesh, the Middle East and Southeast Asia slowed temporarily as buyers awaited price stability, while physical trading activity across Nizamabad, Sangli and Erode remained cautious. However, downside remained limited due to lower arrivals and concerns over adverse weather conditions in major producing regions. Total arrivals were estimated at around 6,000 bags, down approximately 2,000 bags from the previous session. Persistently dry weather in Maharashtra raised concerns over crop development and yield prospects, while forecast cyclonic rainfall across South India introduced additional uncertainty regarding crop conditions. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir water availability in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, eased immediate crop failure concerns. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks of around 15 lakh bags, compared with over 20 lakh bags last season, highlighting tighter overall availability. Meanwhile, stricter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations increased scrutiny of non-IPM compliant supplies, while demand for IPM-certified turmeric provided support to compliant stocks. India's turmeric exports declined 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tonnes in August 2026 from 17,136 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-August increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes against 63,020 tonnes last year. Shipments to the UAE, Netherlands and Brazil increased 50%, 57% and 37%, respectively, while exports to Bangladesh declined 85%. In Nizamabad, the major spot market, turmeric prices ended at Rs. 25,170.60 per quintal. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined 0.39% to 17,970 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs. 228. Turmeric is currently finding support at Rs. 26,390, followed by Rs. 26,110, while resistance is placed at Rs. 26,900. A sustained move above this resistance could trigger a recovery towards Rs. 27,130, whereas a break below immediate support may extend the downside pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 26110-27130.

• Turmeric dropped amid active profit booking after prices rallied due to prevailing tight pipeline supplies and lower overall acreage estimates.

• Overseas inquiries from key destinations in Bangladesh, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia slowed down temporarily as buyers waited for price stability.

• Physical trade sentiment across Nizamabad, Sangli, and Erode turned slightly cautious, with traders noting that physical off-take thinned out at current price quotes.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 25170.6 Rupees dropped by 0 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.63% lower at Rs. 26,065 per quintal, as profit booking and expectations of stable-to-higher sowing acreage in Saurashtra and western Rajasthan weighed on prices. Cooling temperatures and favourable residual soil moisture following the monsoon supported early field preparations, while subdued trading at Unjha APMC reflected resistance from processors and millers to elevated prices. However, downside remained limited amid concerns over tightening supplies, uncertain weather conditions and rising export demand. The El Niño phenomenon and inadequate water availability in key cumin-growing regions of Rajasthan raised concerns over sowing decisions and upcoming crop yields. Gujarat also declared Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar and Kutch as scarcity-hit districts. Industry estimates indicate India's cumin production could decline to 90-92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat output estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. International production concerns also persisted, with China's crop estimated at 70,000-80,000 tonnes, while Syria and Turkey are expected to produce 9,000-10,000 tonnes and 10,000-11,000 tonnes, respectively. However, expectations of improved production in competing origins and aggressive farmer stock liquidation ahead of the next sowing season capped gains. India's jeera exports declined 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026, while cumulative exports during April-August fell to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes a year earlier. On an annual basis, exports declined 17.4% to 174,479 tonnes during September 2025-August 2026. Shipments to the USA increased 16.5% in August, while exports to the UAE declined 81.6%. In Unjha, the major spot market, prices ended at Rs. 26,085.80 per quintal, gaining 0.1%. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined 2.15% to 7,221 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs. 165. Jeera is currently finding support at Rs. 25,860, followed by Rs. 25,660, while resistance is placed at Rs. 26,240. A sustained move above this resistance could extend the recovery towards Rs. 26,410, whereas a break below immediate support may increase selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 25660-26410.

• Jeera dropped on profit booking amid expectations of stable-to-higher sowing acreage in Saurashtra and western Rajasthan.

• With temperatures cooling and favorable residual soil moisture post-monsoon, market participants are monitoring early field preparations.

• The seasonal peak in domestic retail and wholesale pipeline replenishment moderated, slowing down dispatch.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26085.8 Rupees gained by 0.1 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views