MOSt Signature: Model Portfolio - October 2025 by Motilal Oswal Wealth Management
ICICI BANK
* ICICI Bank reinforced its leadership in FY25 with healthy loan growth, resilient margins, and strong digital adoption. Gross advances grew ~15% CAGR over FY23-25, led by retail & business, with the latter contributing ~20% of total loans.
* Deposit growth remained robust, supported by a strong retail franchise & 41.2% CASA ratio. Digital platforms is key differentiator, with ~95% of transactions processed online.
* Flagship offerings iMobile Pay and InstaBIZ are scaling rapidly, driving fee income and customer engagement.
* We expect ~16% loan CAGR and stable RoA/RoE of 2.3%/16.7% by FY27
HDFC BANK
* HDFC Bank is well-positioned for a strong rebound, with FY25 marking a transition phase focused on regulatory compliance and consolidation.
* With loan growth guided to match the system in FY26 and exceed it in FY27, we estimate 10.7%/12.5% growth in FY26/FY27. Asset quality remains robust (GNPA/NNPA at 1.4%/0.5%), supported by strong provisioning buffer.
* Mgmt. is concentrating on enhancing customer engagement & service delivery to boost deposit inflows, which is evident from improvement in its deposit mkt. share to 12% (vs 10.3% in FY23).
* We project FY27E RoA/RoE at 1.9%/14.9%, supported by strong provision buffers & improving oper. leverage.
SHRIRAM FINANCE
* Lately, Shriram Finance invested Rs.300 crore in Shriram Overseas via rights issue, subscribing to 1.9 crore shares, to strengthen the subsidiary’s capital base as part of a Rs.500 crore plan.
* A strategic shift to higher-yielding non-auto products strengthens diversification & supports blended yield improvement. Its expanded rural footprint (750+ branches) will aid disbursement growth and deepen customer penetration over the next 12–18 months.
* Strong traction in used CVs, gold loans, and MSME expansion underpins growth visibility, with liability costs are trending down. We estimate PAT CAGR of ~17% over FY25–27 and RoA/RoE of 3.2%/16% by FY27E.
PAYTM
* Merchant subscriptions hit a record 13 million in Q1FY26, supported by quality devices & services, with over 1 million POS machines deployed, including new chip-enabled sound boxes enhancing customer retention.
* Paytm delivered a robust 1QFY26, reporting a net profit of Rs.1.2b (ahead of estimates) driven by lower DLG, collections, and ESOPrelated expenses
* PAYTM focuses on AI-driven solutions to boost processes & customer engagement, seeing a vast opportunity as 40-50% of 100 million potential merchants may need subs. services for business mgmt.
* With improving monetization in financial services and a cash buffer of Rs.161b, Paytm is poised to turn EBITDA positive by FY26.
NIVA BUPA
* Niva Bupa reinforcing its position as the 3 rd largest standalone health insurer. GWP rose 20.6% YoY, outpacing industry’s 9% growth. Mkt. share in retail health climbed to 9.4%, underscoring consistent share gains.
* The insurer’s multi-segment product suite coupled with its digital-first distribution and strong partner ecosystem, has deepened penetration across customer cohorts. Retail health contributed 65.5% of FY25 premiums, supported by robust broker, bancassurance, and agency channels.
* Operational discipline remains evident with improved combined ratio of 96.1% (ex-1/n). Sustained investment in digital infrastructure, Niva Bupa is positioned to deliver a CAGR of 29%/27%/24% in GWP/NEP/PAT over FY25-27.
CANARA BANK
* Canara Bank delivered a strong quarter, with RoA (1.14%) and credit growth surpassing guidance. Retail, agriculture, and MSME loans grew 15% YoY, led by housing & vehicle finance. Asset quality improved with GNPA/NNPA at 2.5%/0.6% and PCR rising to 93%.
* Treasury gains, higher PSLC income, and steady recoveries provided earnings tailwinds, while opex remained contained. Strong provisioning for stressed accounts and SMA exposures offer downside protection.
* Management guides for ~11% loan growth, CASA ratio of 32%, and credit cost capped at 0.9%. With healthy capital (CET-1 at 12.3%) and robust RoE of 18.5%, CBK is well placed for sustained profitability. We expect FY27E RoA/RoE of 1.1%/19%.
NAM-INDIA
* NAM-India ranks among the top 10 AMCs, posting the fastest QAAUM growth at 27% YoY to Rs.6.1t (Jun’25).
* Market share rose 23bps QoQ to 8.5%—its highest since Jun’19—driven by steady net inflows, strong SIP momentum, and a healthy 46.9% equity mix.
* NAM is scaling its alternatives and offshore businesses, with Rs.81b in AIF commitments & Rs.166b in offshore AUM. These segments serve as incremental growth levers beyond core mutual fund franchise, gaining increasing traction from institutional and global investors.
* Strong traction in MF along with diversification in new segments will drive 14%/16%/15% CAGR in revenue /EBITDA/PAT over FY25-27E.
MAX HEALTHCARE
* MAXH is well-positioned as a leading multi-specialty hospital chain, with plans to add 3,600+ beds over 3–4 years through brownfield expansion and strategic acquisitions.
* MAXH continues its consistent growth, delivering 25% YoY revenue growth for 16 straight quarters with an average EBITDA margin of 27%.
* Diagnostics and home care also scaled well with 19–22% growth. Ongoing expansions, including new bed additions in Mohali, Lucknow, Nagpur, and Gurgaon, position MAXH for sustained momentum. We expect 21%/22%/26% revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR over FY25–27.
HINDUSTAN AERONATICS
* HAL has secured a major order for 97 LCA Tejas Mk1A jets worth INR624b, adding to its previous 83-jet order from Jan’21. This marks a significant boost to HAL’s manufacturing pipeline and long-term revenue visibility.
* Alongside the Tejas Mk1A order, a related USD1b contract for 113 GE F404 engines is expected soon. HAL has already received three engines, with more scheduled by Dec’25, enabling timely execution and reinforcing its production readiness for the Tejas program.
* We expect a 24% CAGR in revenue over FY25-28, led by manufacturing scale-up. EBITDA margins should stay strong at ~28%, supported by indigenization and lower provisions. PAT is projected to grow at 17% CAGR by FY28.
TVS MOTOR
* TVS Motor reported strong domestic 2W growth of ~10% YoY in first quarter, driven by agriculture recovery, and infrastructure investments. International exports surged 40% YoY, led by Africa and LATAM.
* EVs remain a key growth pillar, with iQube sales up 35% YoY. TVS has expanded its EV dealership network to 900+ locations, plans 1,400 by FY26, and investing in battery localization, swappable technology, charging infrastructure.
* TVS will benefit from the premiumization trend in 125cc+ 2W, which now contributing 72% of domestic motorcycles. EBITDA margins will expand 70bp over FY25-27, supporting an EPS CAGR of ~18%.
VOLTAS
* Voltas expects demand recovery in 2HFY26, supported by festive season tailwinds, GST rate reduction on RACs, and pent-up consumer purchases after a weak summer.
* Voltas maintained ~18% mkt. share in RAC and targets continued growth via premiumization, product portfolio expansion, and strengthened trade networks. The commercial AC segment remains the key growth driver, targeting 15-20% growth over the next 2-3 years,
* Voltbek continues to gain traction in refrigerators, washing machines, & other appliances, leveraging GST cuts & urban premiumization trends. Near-term headwinds may pressure margins, but festive demand and policy stimuli are expected to drive recovery.
POLYCAB
* Polycab has established itself as a clear leader in the domestic organized C&W market with ~26–27% share. Its diversified portfolio, strong supply chain, & wide distribution network underpin sustained growth.
* The FMEG segment has turned around with ~29% growth in FY25 and breakeven in 4QFY25, driven by distribution expansion, portfolio upgrades, and brand investments.
* A planned INR60–80b capex over five years will expand capacity, support backward integration, and enhance exports. With strong free cash generation, robust balance sheet, and steady return ratios, Polycab remains structurally well positioned for long-term growth.
ACME SOLAR
* ACME has demonstrated superior project delivery, expanding capacity from 2.5GW in FY25 to a targeted 5.5GW by FY28. Timely execution and competitive financing underpin confidence, with a projected EBITDA CAGR of 74% over FY25–28, making it a leader among renewable peers.
* With the government pushing to resolve the ~40GW PPA backlog, ACME is actively bidding for large-scale projects. Incremental awards will reinforce PAT visibility beyond FY29.
* ACME remains our top pick in the Power/Renewables space. It’s planned 3–3.5GWh battery storage by 2025 offers significant optionality. With 70% of debt floating-rate linked, a 25bp int. rate cut could boost FY27/FY28 PAT by 12%/6%.
RADICO KHAITAN
* Radico Khaitan is well poised for long-term growth through aggressive expansion in the premium & luxury spirits segment, leveraging strong brand with leading products like 8PM, Magic Moments, & Rampur Single Malt.
* It commands an 8% mkt. share in Prestige & Above (P&A) segment, with rising consumer premiumization.
* Lately, Radico acquired 47.5% equity stake in D’YAVOL Spirits B.V., aiming to “Take India to the World” by building bottledin-origin luxury brands, targeting Tequila and other niche categories with global reach and creativity.
* We estimate revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 16%/22%/30% over FY25-FY28, supported by margin expansion due to premiumization & operating leverage.
ETERNAL
* Blinkit’s NOV (INR92b) surpassed food delivery (INR89b) for the first time in a full quarter. With a value-conscious customer base, it focuses on speed, assortment, support, and price. Over the next 2–3 quarters, it will shift from a marketplace to an inventory-ownership model.
* Quick commerce losses appear to have bottomed out, with Blinkit’s EBITDA margin improving to -1.8% inQ1FY26 (from -2.4% in 4QFY25), despite aggressive expansion.
* We see Eternal as a generational play on retail and food delivery disruption & project over 15% NOV growth in FY26, supported by the long-term potential of Blinkit as a generational opportunity in retail, grocery, and ecommerce disruption.
VISHAL MEGA MART
* Vishal Mega Mart is one of India’s largest offline-first value retailers, operating 696 stores across 458 cities, with ~72% in Tier 2+ India. VMM aims to add 100+ stores per year across 1,250+ Tier 2+ towns & untapped Tier 1 cities, supported by robust store-level economics.
* VMM’s mix—Apparel (44%), FMCG & GM (~28% each)— with 73% revenue from private brands, drives footfall, wallet share, and TAM expansion. With 50% RoCE, & double-digit SSSG, VMM enjoys strong store-level profitability & self-funded expansion through disciplined, asset-light operations.
* We expect revenue/PAT CAGR of 19%/24% over FY25–28, driven by steady store additions & margin gains. Forecast cumulative OCF/FCF of Rs.32b/Rs.23b ensures ample internal funding, while private label scale & operating leverage further enhance profitability.
INDIGO
* Management reaffirmed double-digit ASK growth for FY26, with seasonal moderation in 2Q but a strong ramp-up expected in 2H, aided by new aircraft inductions, rising international mix (~30% of ASKs), and higher MICE and wedding demand.
* IndiGo is focused on delivering affordable, reliable, and ontime travel, with disciplined growth, cost control, and value creation.
* INDIGO’s focus on cost efficiency, MRO expansion, and reduced reliance on damp leases should support profitability. We expect revenue/EBITDAR/Adj. PAT CAGR of 9%/13%/18% over FY25-27.
TIME TECHNOPLAST
* The composite packaging sector is witnessing robust momentum, led by the rising share of value-added products such as LPG and CNG cylinders, which are growing at 20– 30% CAGR with superior margins above 18%.
* Emerging opportunities such as hydrogen composite cylinders, drone applications, and fire safety solutions, while sustainability-focused initiatives like recycling plants and renewable energy adoption strengthen long-term positioning.
* We estimate a 15%/16%/23% CAGR over FY25-28. Time Techno offers a compelling long-term investment case driven by innovation, operational discipline, and structural demand visibility.
SRF
* SRF is well-placed to benefit from evolving global regulations under the Kigali Amendment and shifting consumption trends toward low-GWP refrigerants. Its fully backwardintegrated operations and strong global distribution provide structural advantages.
* For FY26, SRF plans a capex of ~Rs.22–23b, which may rise during the year. Over the past 18 months, it achieved a 30% capacity increase through debottlenecking.
* The chemicals segment is set to sustain momentum, supported by new plant ramp-ups, a strong order book, stable refrigerant demand, and rising PTFE sales. Packaging margins should improve, backed by value-added products. We model a revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT CAGR of 16%/30%/42% over FY25–27E.
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