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Market Update

Nifty : 24,793.25 -18.80 (-0.08%)

Sensex : 81,361.87 -82.79 (-0.10%)

* Equity benchmarks Nifty and Sensex ended the session slightly lower, but broader markets saw a sharp decline led by losses in mid-cap, small-cap, IT, banking, and metal stocks. The downturn was driven by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, persistent concerns over elevated U.S. inflation, hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair, and a surge in crude oil prices to a five-month high above $77 per barrel. Adding to the pressure, markets across Asia and Europe fell as much as 2% amid reports suggesting a potential U.S. military strike on Iran this weekend.

* The Nifty slipped marginally by 18 points or 0.1% to close at 81,361, cushioned by gains in heavyweight stocks such as Reliance Industries, ONGC, M&M, Bharti Airtel, Tata Consumer, and L&T. However, broader indices suffered significantly, with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices each declining by 1.5%. Sectorally, the Nifty Metal and IT indices dropped 3% and 1% respectively, while the Nifty PSU Bank index lost 2%. Nifty 500 stocks advance decline ratio was 1:6

* Overnight, U.S. markets ended mostly flat after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but indicated a more cautious approach to rate cuts—now expecting only two by year-end. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that goods inflation might rise during the summer, partly due to tariffs linked to President Donald Trump’s trade policies. This reduced outlook for monetary easing has weakened foreign investor interest in emerging markets, including India. The combination of weak global cues, hawkish Fed commentary, and heightened geopolitical risks weighed heavily on Indian IT and banking stocks.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty index opened flattish and witnessed a spike in the first hour but failed to hold above 24850 zones and slipped lower. Bulls were charged for a brief upward momentum but lack of follow up buying and selling pressure drowned it lower. However it remained in the range of the opening hour but closed below its opening levels with marginal losses.

* It formed a doji and a spinning top sort of candle on daily frame with longer upper shadow indicating a tug of war between the bulls and bears, both of which are failing to establish control. Now if it manages to hold above 24700, up move can be seen towards 24950 and 25100 zones while a hold below the same could see weakness towards 24600 then 24500 zones.

Derivative Outlook:

* Nifty future closed negative with losses of 0.20% at 24778 levels. Positive setup can be seen in Eicher motors, Wipro, Apollo hospitals, Kotak bank, Grasim, Eternal, LT, Maruti, Hero Motocorp and M&M while weakness in JSW energy, VBL, Vedanta, IREDA, Hindcopper, Granules, IEX, Ambuja cements, Inox wind and Syngene.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 25000 then 26000 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 24000 then 23000 strike. Call writing is seen at 24800 then 26000 strike while Put writing is seen at 24800 then 24000 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 24300 to 25300 zones while an immediate range between 24600 to 25000 levels.

Global Market Update

* European Market - European stocks fell for a third straight session on concerns around escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as well as worries about stickier US inflation. UK, Germany and France Index decline 0.5% each.

* Asian Market - Asian equities declined as the US weighs the potential for direct conflict with Iran, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of meaningful inflation ahead. China and Japan Index declined by 2% and 1% respectively.

* US Data - US is shut today due to holiday.

* Commodity - Oil futures rose 1% to above $77/bbl, on a report that suggested a U.S. military strike against Iran could happen this weekend. Bloomberg News said that some senior U.S. officials were preparing for a possible weekend strike. President Donald Trump has publicly said he has not decided whether to make a strike or not.

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