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Views On Morning Nifty and Derivative comments 04 December 2023 by Anand James - Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

Niftyoutlook  : Nifty weekly RSI is heading into overbought levels that has historically forced the index to turn lower. However, momentum is still in favour with ADX strong and the directional moving indicators not yet extreme. This allows window for Nifty to stretch atleast till 20500-600 before the calls for a turn lower becomes stronger. 20190/070 or 19800 could serve as downside markers until then. Meanwhile VIX is showing signs of bottoming out after languishing not far from record low for a substantial period of time, which had not let the traditional correlation between Nifty and VIX into play. We are now bracing for a 20% rise in volatility here on, from 12.3 last recorded on Friday, thus elevating to a level where the correlation will become more meaningful. - Read more

Derivative outlook:
Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 21000 for Calls and 20000 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 21000 for Calls and 19000 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 20600 for Calls and 20200 for Puts in weekly and at 19800 for Calls and 20200 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by 9.70%, decreased future index shorts by 2.22% and increased in index options by 50.83% in Call longs, 37.63% in Call short, 99.20% in Put longs and 75.99% in Put shorts. - Read more

USD-INR outlook:
Repeated failure to breach 83.4 has rendered the trend weak calling for dips to 83.19 or a consolidation inside 83.19 - 83.02 again. While we see 83.19-83.26 as a turnaround region, we will wait for breach of 83.4-83.02 band to be broken to play directional moves. - Read more

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