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We interacted with cement dealers across regions in India to assess demand and pricing trends in Oct’25. Our Discussions indicate that overall demand remained muted, affected by intermittent rains and labour shortages in festivities, though certain markets showed modest month-on-month improvement. Post GST-led reduction in cement prices in Sep’25, prices have further declined in South & East markets led by demand weakness. Northern demand improved slightly, supported by government projects. Western markets demand was stable, and Central demand stayed weak, with recovery likely from November. The all-India average selling price declined by Rs8 MoM to ~Rs316/bag. Going forward, dealers across regions do not anticipate any price hike till Dec’25.

With the festive season concluded and rains gradually subsiding, dealers expect demand to pick up further. Increased government spending (31% YoY in Oct’25 reaching 52% of FY26 target) and post-festive construction activities are likely to support volumes. Being a seasonally strong quarter, higher volumes in Q3FY26 are expected to partially offset pricing pressures as companies would try to raise prices on rise in pet coke costs (USD120/t). We believe companies would try taking price hikes in South & East to the tune of recent fall post GST cut. We maintain our positive stance on UTCEM and ACEM, supported by their strong volume growth and ability to increase premium segment share as general trade segment prices remain under pressure.

Northern Region

In Delhi, prices were largely stable MoM. Demand has been decent, improving slightly from last month despite the festive period. However, intense competition is preventing any price hikes, which now seem unlikely before January. The implementation of GRAP Stage 1 has already affected construction activity, and potential escalation to Stage 2 could further dampen demand in the near term.

Jaipur demand remained sluggish, though it has improved slightly compared to last month. Festive activities and intermittent rainfall have impacted construction activity to some extent. Prices have remained unchanged month-on-month, and no price hike is expected before December. Government demand outpaced retail demand in October. Overall sentiment remains positive, with dealers expecting a gradual improvement in demand in the coming months, though the wedding season may exert some temporary pressure.

Southern region

In Chennai cement demand in October remained weak, with good offtake seen only in the first half of the month before rains and festive holidays slowed activity. Prices have softened following the GST cut due to subdued demand. Construction and infrastructure activity has been sluggish, impacted by persistent rainfall (which is likely to continue till December end) and the festive season. While one dealer anticipates a Rs 20–25/bag price hike in Nov–Dec ahead of next year’s state elections, most dealers expect demand to remain muted, with a meaningful recovery likely only after the elections in Apr’26.

In Hyderabad, cement prices have softened amid monsoon, the recent cyclone in Andhra Pradesh, and weak demand during the Diwali and Chhath festive period. Labour shortages, as many migrant workers from Bihar and UP returned home, have further slowed construction activity. Intense competition among dealers has also added pressure on prices. While demand is not severely weak, most dealers expect a modest recovery to Rs305–310/bag in November, with a possible Rs20 increase in the latter half of the month, though a larger hike appears unlikely before Jan’26.

Eastern region

Cement prices in Kolkata have declined recently amid weak demand during the month. Continuous rains and the festive season have slowed construction activity, as many workers returned to Bihar for the festivities. Dealers expect demand to revive within a week or so if rains subside, though no major price increase is anticipated in November.

In Patna, cement prices across all brands have softened amid sluggish demand. Continuous rainfall throughout the month, along with the festive season (Diwali and Chhath), has kept construction activity muted. Railway prioritization of essential goods has also slowed cement rake movement. Dealers expect demand to remain subdued at least until elections conclude by mid-November, with no price hikes anticipated till first half of December.

Western region

Cement prices in Mumbai have remained largely stable MoM. Demand has been sluggish this month due to monsoon and the festive season, though it is slightly better compared to last month. Dealers expect an improvement in demand in the coming month. A modest price hike of Rs10–15/bag may be attempted next month, but it appears challenging; meaningful increases are more likely from January onwards. Weak infrastructure activity and the absence of government projects are also limiting near-term price hikes.

Cement demand in Ahmedabad remained weak in October, impacted by festivities, worker shortages, and intermittent rains. Construction activity slowed across the city during the festive period. While dealers expect demand to improve gradually in the coming weeks, they are uncertain about any immediate price increase.

Central region

Lucknow cement demand remains moderate, broadly similar to September, though dealers report a slight improvement compared to last month. Intermittent rains and the ongoing wedding season are expected to temper construction activity in the near term. Prices have remained stable month-on-month, with companies passing on full benefits of around Rs 30 per bag to customers. Dealers expect better material movement in November, though any price hike is likely only from December onwards.

In Bhopal, Cement demand remained sluggish in October, affected by intermittent rains, festivals, and agricultural harvesting, which limited labour availability. Government projects are minimal, and strict GST compliance checks have ensured full pass-through of benefits to customers. Dealers do not expect any price hikes for at least the next three months, with meaningful increases likely only in January. Demand is expected to improve gradually from November, though labour shortages particularly from Bihar due to elections may continue to constrain construction activity in the short term.

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