Mild relief for rupee on slight recovery in Asia before US inflation data
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The Indian rupee is likely to inch up at the open on Wednesday on the back of a mild uptick in its Asian peers before U.S. inflation data that will hold cues on what the Federal Reserve will do at its next meeting.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 84.38-84.3850 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 84.3925 in the previous session.
The currency dipped to an all-time low of 84.4125 on Tuesday.
Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. election has spurred a rally in the dollar amid expectations of higher U.S. growth and inflation, and a shallower Federal Reserve rate cut cycle.
The dollar index is perched near its highest level in more than six months.
"The dollar is likely to keep pushing higher for at least the next two months. Prospects of tariffs on China and Europe will keep their currencies weak, the result of which will be felt (by the rupee)," a currency trader at a bank said.
The Reserve Bank of India "will continue to play a big role" in "making sure of an orderly pace" of decline for the rupee, he said.
The RBI has intervened to support the rupee on most days over the last month, to control the decline.
ASIA FX RECOVERS
There was a pause in the Trump victory-fuelled sell-off in Asian currencies, with most up 0.1%-0.3% in the lead up to the U.S. inflation data.
The data comes amid a dip in the probability that the Fed will cut rates next month on the back of Trump's victory. The odds of a 25 basis points rate cut are now at 56%, compared to 78% a week back, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
"While economic fundamentals suggest inflation should continue to moderate, (Trump) policy changes pose an upside risk to the outlook," BofA Securities said in a note.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 84.48; onshore one-month forward premium at 9.5 paisa
** Dollar index at 105.96
** Brent crude futures up 0.2% at $72 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.42%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $43.2 mln worth of Indian shares on Nov. 11
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $13 mln worth of Indian bonds on Nov. 11
