Metals & Mining Sector Update : Capacity Execution on Track, Realisation Resilient by Choice Institutional Equities Ltd
Our Metals & Mining coverage NMDC, Lloyds Metals & Energy (LLOYDSME) and Monolithisch India (MONOLITH) enters into FY27 with strong operating momentum, supported by India’s structural steel-capacity expansion cycle. India’s crude steel capacity is targeted to rise from ~220 MnT in FY26 to 300 MnT by FY31 under the National Steel Policy, implying ~150 MnT of incremental iron-ore demand and a corresponding increase in refractory (ramming mass) consumption for the induction-furnace route.
Both, LLOYDSME and MONOLITH, delivered a record Q1FY27 performance. LLOYDSME’s consolidated revenue surged 209% YoY, with EBITDA up 245% YoY and margin at 37.8%, driven by a 53% YoY. MONOLITH also reported its highest-ever quarterly revenue, EBITDA and PAT, supported by a sharp premiumisation-led mix shift, with SGB-Limited contributing ~50% of Q1FY27 revenue as compared to ~15% in Q4FY26.
NMDC, India’s largest iron-ore producer, ended FY26 on a strong note with a record production of 53.15 MnT (+21% YoY). The company is now embarking on an INR-400 Bn five-year capex programme (FY27E–FY30E) aimed at nearly doubling its production capacity to ~110 MnT. Notably, the planned capex is broadly equivalent to NMDC’s cumulative investment over the preceding three decades, highlighting the scale of its expansion programme
Across our coverage, capacity expansion, premiumisation/valueadded product mix and structural cost/logistics advantages remain the key earning drivers through FY27E–FY29E. We remain BUY-rated on all three stocks, supported by a strong volume growth, capacity ramp-ups and improving earnings visibility.
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