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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is expected to face the hurdle near $2350 and move towards the psychological support at $2300 amid higher treasury yields and reduced safe haven demand. Forecast of sticky inflation numbers in US could force the Fed to hold the rate higher for longer. The US PCE price index data is expected to stay above the previous reading of 2.5% YoY. Furthermore, positive risk sentiments and diminishing probability of rate cut would limit the upside in the bullions. June rate cut probability has almost vanished and dipped below the 10% for the first time.

• MCX Gold June is expected to face the hurdle near 71800 and move lower towards 70600. Only close below 70600, it would turn weaker and slide further towards 70000.

• MCX Silver May is expected to face the resistance at 82000 and move lower towards 79500. Only a move below 79500, it would open the doors towards 78200.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are likely to make new highs amid tight supplies and demand optimism. Strong inflow of money through investment funds would support the prices. Further, forecast of potential deficit in the refined copper market this year and higher demand from the EV space would also raise bullish bets on the metal space. Moreover, growing optimism of fresh round of stimulus from China to boost the economy would help the metal to stay higher. Meanwhile, higher interest rates for longer period by the Fed could restrict its upside.

• For the day MCX Copper May is expected to find support near 850 and move towards 860. Only close above 860 it would rise towards 868.

• Aluminum is expected to find the support near 232 and move higher towards 238. Only close below 232 would weaken towards 230 mark.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to trade with a positive bias and remain in the range of $82 and $85 amid supply risk as the conflict in the Middle East continued to provide support. Investors remained cautious as continuous attack by Israel could lead to wider regional conflict and hurt the oil supplies. Further, hopes of better demand from US ahead of summer driving season would provide necessary support to the oil prices. Meanwhile, focus will shift towards the US inflation numbers, which would bring more clarity on the timing of the Fed rate cut. A higher for longer interest rate would support the dollar to stay higher and restrict any major upside in the oil prices.

• MCX Crude oil May future is likely to hold the support near 6800 and move back towards 7000. Only a sustained move above 7000 it would rise towards 7100 mark.

• MCX May future is expected to face the hurdle near 172 and move lower towards 160.

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