IGI Logo

Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is likely to slip back towards $2300 level amid expectation of strength in dollar and recovery in US treasury yields. Dollar and Yields are likely to move higher as US Federal Reserve in its policy meeting indicated that they will be cutting rate this year but projected 2 fewer rate cuts than forecasted in March. FOMC projected that the funds rate will end 2024 at a median 5.1% compared to 4.6% projected in March. Additionally, Fed also pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December. Spot gold prices may slip towards $2285 level as long as it stays below $2330 level (10-Day EMA)

* MCX Gold Aug prices is likely to slip back towards 71,000 level (50-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 72,000 level (20-Day EMA). A break below 71,000 level prices may slide further towards 70,600 level.

* MCX Silver July is expected to slip back towards 88,000 level as long as it stays below 90,300 level (20-Day EMA). A break below 88,000 level prices may slip further towards 86,500 level (50-Day EMA)

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade with the negative bias amid firm dollar and rising inventories at LME and SHFE registered warehouses. Further, Yangshan copper premium, which reflects the country's demand for copper imports continued to remain below zero since May, indicating weakness in Chinese markets. Meanwhile, sharp fall may be cushioned on expectations that Beijing will unveil more support measures in coming months to keep the economy on track to reach its GDP growth target

* MCX Copper is expected to slip back towards 854 level (50-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 875 level (20-Day EMA). A break below 854 prices may skid further towards 843 level

* Aluminum is expected move further south towards 230 level as long as it stays below 236 level. A break below 230 level prices may dip further towards 226 level (89-Day EMA)

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to slip back towards $77.50 level amid expectation of strength in dollar and unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories and fuel stock. Further, IEA in its monthly report cut its forecast for 2024 global crude demand by 100,000 bpd to 960,000 bpd. The IEA prediction contrasted with a more optimistic forecast from OPEC. Moreover, US Fed pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December, with officials projecting only a single 25bps reduction for the year. Investors fear that higher borrowing costs tend to dampen economic growth, and limit oil demand. NYMEX Crude oil is likely to slip back towards $77.50 level (200-Day EMA) as long as it trades below $79.30 level

* MCX Crude oil July is likely to move south towards 6430 level (10- Day EMA) as long as it stays below 6620 level

* MCX Natural gas June is expected to slip further towards 244 level as long as it stays below 258 level

https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number INZ000183631