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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Gold prices are expected to face the hurdle $2060 and move back towards $2025 on waning prospects of early rate cut by the Fed. Improved job numbers and wage growth numbers in December might force the Fed to hold the rates at higher for longer. Meanwhile, the CME Fed Watch tool indicates a 62% probability of rate cut in the March meeting and the probability of rate cut in may dipped below the 50% mark. Further, investor will eye on key inflation number this week to get more clarity on the frequency of rate cut in this year

• MCX gold is expected to face the hurdle near 63,000, and move back towards 62,200. Only close below 62,200 it would weaken towards 61,800.

• MCX silver is likely to dip towards 72,000, as long as it trades under 73,200.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to remain under pressure on softer demand. Lower demand of refined copper from China due to higher domestic output would check its upside. Meanwhile, persistence supply concerns and expectation of more stimulus measures from China would help the metal to limit its downside. Copper prices are set to remain volatile as the market continues to respond to any policy change from Beijing with any further recovery in prices dependent on economic stimulus from China

• MCX Copper January is expected to face the hurdle near 727 and weaken towards 717. Only close above 727 it would reverse its trend.

• Aluminum is expected to face the hurdle near 208 and decline towards 203.

Energy Outlook

• Crude oil prices are expected to hold its ground and move back towards the $75 amid fear of supply disruption. The ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and tension in the Middle East would support the oil prices to hold its gains. Most of the shipping companies are not willing to move through the Red Sea due to the attacks in region, which might increase the shipping costs and push the oil prices higher.

• MCX Crude oil January is likely to find support near 6000 and move back towards 6250.

• MCX Natural gas January future is likely to rise towards 240 mark as long as it holds above the 225 level. Cold weather forecast in coming weeks is likely to increase the demand and support prices to trade higher.

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