IGI Logo

Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Intl gold is expected to rise further towards $2500 level amid weakness in dollar and softening of US treasury yields. Yields are moving south as traders await US inflation data this week that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path. As per CME FedWatch tool markets are pricing 100 basis points of Fed cuts by year end but upcoming PPI and CPI data could shift market perception. Moreover, prices may rally on safe heaven demand due to escalating tension in Middle East and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, higher OI concentration at call strike 2500 would act as stiff resistance, while on put side, rise in OI at the 2450 strike, would provide immediate support to the prices. Intl gold is expected to rise further towards $2500 level as long as its stays above $2430 level (10-Day EMA)

* MCX Gold Oct is expected to rise further towards 71,400 level as long as it stays above 70,000 level

* MCX Silver September is expected to rise further towards 82,500 level as long as it stays above 80,000 level

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias amid optimistic global market sentiments, weakness in dollar and on fears over supply disruption. Zambia closed its border with the DR Congo, delaying copper shipments while on the other hand BHP Group and union leaders at the Escondida operation in Chile are sitting down for one last session of mediated wage talks. Additionally, China’s Yangshan premium, an indicator of import demand, stood at $60 per ton yesterday, indicating recovery in demand.

* MCX Copper Aug is expected to rise back towards 801 level (20-Day EMA) as long as it stays above 780 level. A break above 801 level prices may rise further towards 805 level

* Aluminum is expected move south towards 213.5 level (10-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 217 level. A break below 213.5 level prices may slip further towards 210 level

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to rise further towards $81 level on weakness in dollar and optimistic global market sentiments. Further, prices may rally on fear over supply disruption due to escalating tension in Middle East and eastern Europe. Markets are also preparing from US PPI and CPI data that would give important read on inflation. Money markets bet on 25 or 50 bps cut in interest rate by US Fed in September meeting, a total easing of 100bps by the year end. Lower borrowing cost would raise economic activity and demand for oil. NYMEX Crude oil is likely to rise towards $81 level as long as it trades above $78

* MCX Crude oil Sep is likely to move north towards 6730 level as long as it stays above 6400 level (20-Day EMA)

* MCX Natural gas Aug is likely to slip towards 177 level (10-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 187 level. A break below 177 would open doors for 170 level

https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number INZ000183631