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Bullion Outlook

Metal’s Outlook

* Spot gold is expected to rise further towards $2475 level on weakness in dollar and softening of US treasury yields. Dollar and Yields are moving south as recent economic data indicated a slowing in the labor market and wage growth, making conditions more likely for Fed to start reducing rates. On top of it US Fed in its policy meeting kept rates unchanged as widely expected but signaled possible rate cuts as soon as September as inflation draws closer to its 2% target rate. Furthermore, US ISM Manufacturing PMI data is projected to show that activity in sector contracted for 4 th consecutive month. Gold is likely to rise further towards $2475 level as long as it stays above $2410 level

* MCX Gold Oct is expected to hold the support near 69,150 level and rise further towards 70,000 level. A break above 70,000 level prices may rally further towards 70,600 level

* MCX Silver September is expected to rise further towards 85,300 level as long as it stays above 82,600 level

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias amid weakness in dollar and rise in risk appetite in the global markets following US Fed decision to hold interest rates unchanged but opening the door to possible interest rate cuts as soon as September. Additionally, China’s leaders pledged to step up support measures and stabilize market confidence at a Politburo meeting. Moreover, weak economic data from China raised odds of further stimulus from government to revive economic growth.

* MCX Copper Aug is expected to rise further towards 200-Day EMA level near 820 as long as it stays above 798 level. A break above 820 level prices may rise further towards 825 level

* Aluminum is expected move north towards 217.50 level as long as it stays above 211.50 level. A break above 217.50 level prices may rise further towards 219 level

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to rise back towards $80 level on weakness in dollar and concern that the conflict in the Middle East could widen after the killing of a Hamas leader in Iran. Additionally, larger than expected drawn down of crude oil inventories will support oil prices. As per EIA figures US crude stocks decreased by 3.4 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks fell by 3.7M barrels, while distillates inventories increased by 1.5M. Moreover, OPEC+ is expected to stick to their current deal on production and start unwinding some output cuts from October. Further, addition of OI at put strike 78 and 77 would act as strong support levels. NYMEX Crude oil is likely to rise back towards $80 as long as it trades above $77.80 level (100-Day EMA)

* MCX Crude oil is likely to move north towards 6700 level as long as it stays above 6400 level

* MCX Natural gas Aug is likely to slip towards 165 level as long as it stays below 178 level.

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